The candidate for the ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party) and the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) has been known since the 2018 elections: President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. The two parties are partners under the People's Alliance, with Erdoğan serving as the alliance's candidate for the upcoming presidential elections.

Six months before the 2023 elections, there is a fierce struggle among the opposition bloc over who will be the presidential candidate. The candidate that stood out for about a week was Republican People's Party (CHP) Chairperson Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, the largest party in the opposition bloc, known as the "table for six." The table has not yet announced its decision, but Kılıçdaroğlu is the only person who has clearly stated that he wants to be the candidate. The 75-year-old leader probably wants to make a bold jubilee.

However, a Turkish court’s verdict on Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoğlu last Wednesday shook the balance.

Imamoğlu, who became a shining star in the CHP after he won Istanbul in the local elections, was sentenced to two years and seven months in prison for insulting officials from Türkiye's Supreme Election Board (YSK).

The court also imposed a political ban on the mayor, but both rulings must be confirmed by an appeals court. Even if the decision is upheld by the higher courts, Imamoğlu will not go to jail because the sentence is less than three years. He will be banned from politics only during his sentence. There is a high probability that the court decision will be overturned in favor of Imamoğlu.

Lawyers say that it will take two years at best for the process to be clarified. In other words, it is clear that the decision will not affect Imamoğlu's ongoing mayoral duties or his possible presidential candidacy.

However, the conviction of Imamoğlu was welcomed by some. For days, the media has been talking about the images of Imamoğlu hugging Meral Akşener, the chairperson of the Good Party (IP), the second biggest partner of the table for six, as soon as she received the news of the sentence. The images in which the duo rejoiced over the court’s verdict are quite confusing.

Kılıçdaroğlu's reproaches

Yes, the reason why Imamoğlu was head-over-heels for the jail sentence or political ban is obvious, even if it means nothing without the approval of appeals courts. He wants to go back to the presidential candidacy race by bubbling up the image of the "politician trying to be blocked."

However, Kılıçdaroğlu has repeatedly announced that the mayors will not be candidates. He even openly told Imamoğlu and Ankara Mayor Mansur Yavaş to "get out of my way."

The fact that Imamoğlu took advantage of his trip to Germany and held a rally with the chair of another opposition party and used expressions such as "embracing Türkiye's 85 million people" made Kılıçdaroğlu even more stern. "Nobody told me about it. I learned what happened from social media," he said.

Kılıçdaroğlu also criticized Akşener’s backing of a CHP mayor with whom he formed a coalition at the table for six, saying that, "A party should not interfere in the internal affairs of another party."

So, will Kılıçdaroğlu change his stance and give up his candidacy? Moreover, will he point to Imamoğlu?

This does not seem possible for now. Since Mr. Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu knows that, in this situation, the main opposition leader, whom he has managed to protect for 12 years, will lose his seat. Furthermore, he knows that if he puts Imamoğlu, who is not afraid to declare himself as the future hope of the CHP, in front of Erdoğan, he will not win. In short, Kılıçdaroğlu has no choice but to stay away from this race, which Imamoğlu will win, whether he becomes president or not. However, there is no mechanism to make Kılıçdaroğlu, who is completely in control of the party, take a step back – unless, of course, "locker-room" methods come into play in politics.

Unfortunately, the dynamics of 100-year-old CHP politics are no stranger to such initiatives.

For example, Kılıçdaroğlu, who parachuted into the political scene from the bureaucracy, was installed in the chair of Deniz Baykal overnight 12 years ago after a sex tape of the party’s former chair was leaked online.