With the 2024 municipal elections just three months away, the crisis within Türkiye’s political opposition worsens amid accusations of conspiracy. The Good Party’s (IP) decision to contest the election "freely" and "individually" encouraged some members of the municipal councils in Ankara and Istanbul (who were part of the "ecosystem" that the two mayors created) and some parliamentarians to resign.

People around the IP Chairperson Meral Akşener overwhelmingly believe that Ekrem Imamoğlu and Mansur Yavaş – who will seek reelection on the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) ticket in March 2024 – launched an "institutional operation" against the movement to meddle in its internal affairs. A "declaration of war."

The CHP’s decision to promote "cooperation at the grassroots level" evolving into an operation within the IP suggests that the current crisis is far more serious than Akşener’s March 3, 2023, decision to leave the "Table for Six." That this process of separation has been accompanied by the above accusations renders Imamoğlu and Yavaş’s efforts to form local alliances morally dubious.

Akşener’s most recent speeches made the discord between the IP and CHP all the more pronounced as she called the mayors of Istanbul and Ankara "cowards" for failing to run for president in 2023. It was impossible for the IP chairwoman to pull her movement out of the main opposition’s field of attraction without taking a jab at Imamoğlu and Yavaş. Hardly anyone was surprised to see that Akşener’s criticism came right after the CHP mayors’ "operation" against the IP.

Going forward, there is reason to believe that she will keep criticizing the "politics of alliance" and double down on that argument if the CHP ends up joining forces with DEM, the latest successor of the Peoples’ Democratic Party Party (HDP). Speaking in the western province of Uşak, Akşener already hinted at that possibility: "In this day and age, is it possible to become president without receiving support from Kandil or Imralı? The answer is no." She could accuse Imamoğlu and Yavaş of the same thing quite easily.

Those folks, who are unhappy with the prospect of the CHP being defeated in Istanbul and Ankara, make the case that the IP’s attempt to create a third way will prove catastrophic. Some believe that the movement will gradually disintegrate ahead and in the aftermath of next year’s municipal elections.

New road

It goes without saying that the IP, which formed an alliance with the CHP in 2019 and 2023, faces an uphill battle as it seeks to chart a new course. Perfectly aware of the damage that her movement suffered due to that partnership, Meral Akşener took this new step toward "freedom" and "individuality." One might brush aside the claim that the IP is doomed to fail as pro-CHP comments. I do not argue that the movement can find a way out of the current crisis easily, but merely stress that it has reached the end of the road, to which it has been guided by its alliance with the main opposition party.

Indeed, the "institutional operations" against the IP attest to that fact. The movement risked becoming a CHP satellite under the guise of cooperation. In a political system, where some parties can become relevant with just 1% of the vote, the IP has the ability to become more influential upon surviving the current storm with carefully chosen policies and statements.

Obviously, Akşener will have to fight very hard to get there. DEM’s potential actions, coupled with the CHP’s realignment with the Left, could play into her hands. We will have to wait and see how seriously the CHP will be challenged for losing the support of right-wing parties.