Turkey followed with keen interest the recent German elections that took place against the backdrop of the impending resignation of long-serving Chancellor Angela Merkel, who has been in power for 16 years in Germany.
The results
Let's first look at the unofficial results of the election.
The Social Democratic Party (SPD), which nominated Finance Minister Olaf Scholz as their candidate for prime minister, succeeded in taking the most number of votes, bettering its 2017 showing of 20.5% to reach 25.7% in last Sunday's elections.
The SPD will likely form the government, along with the Greens – which has become the third-largest political force in the country by taking in its largest haul to date with 14.8% of votes – and the Free Democratic Party (FDP), which increased its vote by one point compared to the 2017 elections.
While the racist and anti-immigrant AfD (Alternative for Germany) ossified 10.3% of the vote, the Left Party (Die Linke), which lost the most votes in the election, remained below the 5% threshold. However, it also managed to win a seat in the parliament.
Role of Turkish community
The fact that more than 3 million Turks live in Germany, where 25% of the population are immigrants, is the primary reason why the elections in the country are important for Turkey.
Another reason is undoubtedly the economy. Germany is a world giant. The volume of trade between Turkey and Germany is close to $40 billion.
Another issue, of course, is whether the positive role played by Merkel-led Germany in Turkey-European Union relations will change.
When we examine the atmosphere regarding the future of Turkey-Germany relations under these three headings, the following results emerge.
First, Turkish society is one of the most established elements in Germany's political, economic and social life. Germany, where 19 citizens of Turkish descent entered the parliament, therefore maintains intense relations with Turkey.
Voters of Turkish descent in the country are leaning toward the left of the spectrum, not conservative right parties. However, all political parties have to take the Turkish population into consideration while adjusting the level of their relations with Turkey. We saw that this sensitivity was always at the forefront during the Merkel period – the chancellor was a politician loved by the Turks. There is no reason to change now.
Secondly, the pragmatist economic perspective referred to as "Germany's way" is institutionalized in the country's politics. The annexation of Crimea has been criticized, but relations with Russia are not cut off just because the United States wanted it. Likewise, Berlin on the one hand criticizes Beijing on the issues of Uyghurs and Hong Kong, but China is still the country with which Germany has the most foreign trade.
The realistic consensus in politics that trade must continue for the wheels to turn has brought even populist parties closer to the center. Therefore, the relations between Turkey and Germany, which aim to increase the trade volume between them to $50 billion in the near term, do not seem likely to undergo a radical change in the new period.
Turkey-EU relations
As for Turkey-EU relations ... Merkel has always stood by Turkey on this issue. She was moderate. She mediated as she did during the Turkey-Greek tension.
Scholz, the prime ministerial candidate of the SPD, is also expected to continue Merkel's line on Turkey. It has been accepted that a possible coalition with the Greens, who are constantly critical of Turkey, will not change this situation. As an example, the coalition government formed by the SPD with the Greens during the Gerhard Schroeder period is a case in point. Schroeder had put a lot of effort into making Turkey a candidate country for the EU, and as everyone says, "The Greens are no longer the old Greens."
Although a shake-up is not expected, we are talking about the disappearance of 16 years of experience.
Therefore, it is not difficult to predict that Merkel's absence will be felt in all areas. She has provided a unique voice for Germany, Europe and world politics thanks to her successful, conciliatory and sympathetic personality.