As Türkiye gears up for its upcoming May 14 elections, all eyes are on the country from both sides of the Atlantic. Western media outlets seem to be rallying behind the opposition alliance, the Nation Alliance, running against President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. If this bloc emerges victorious, many believe it will lead to a decrease in the economic and political tensions that have strained Ankara's relations with the West during Erdoğan's two-decadelong tenure.

U.S. President Joe Biden's recent statements in support of the anti-Erdoğan opposition bloc ahead of the elections appear to be consistent with this perspective. It's no secret that Erdoğan has pursued independent policies and engaged in uncompromising negotiations in the interest of Türkiye's national security. Western powers do not want a strong rival; they would rather see the opposition alliance, which they believe is easier to manage and opposes Erdoğan by claiming that Türkiye has no right to claim natural gas in the Eastern Mediterranean, take the reins of power. Who wouldn't want that, right?

However, Erdoğan, who has been consistently and stably governing Türkiye for 21 years and has elevated it to a claimant country status, marginalized the "leaning toward the West for development" tendency in society and politics. From defense industry advances to massive infrastructure projects, the president has fulfilled many promises once thought impossible and reinvigorated the self-confidence of a historically proud electorate.

If you had witnessed the concerns that sparked among the public when Erdoğan had an upset stomach due to a cold in a recent TV interview, you would understand the atmosphere I am talking about.

In such an environment, it is evident that the overt support given by the West and the anti-Erdoğan propaganda it has engaged in will only harm the Turkish opposition.

West's miscalculations

It seems that the calculations made in European capitals and across the ocean no longer hold true in our geography. I could go on and on about their pleas for expensive gas from embargoed Russia, their every move being bogged down in the mud in Ukraine, and their efforts to disrupt the status quo from the Gulf to Afghanistan for years. The Western bloc is trying to deceive us with symbolic victories such as Finland's entry into NATO, but they are rapidly losing the influence they gained after World War II everywhere.

The situation is no different for Türkiye. The West is once again making the wrong calculations. Because if its scenario succeeds, and the opposition bloc wins the elections, they will be desperately searching for Erdoğan, whom they are trying to overthrow today.

It is not difficult to predict what will happen if a coalition of seven tendencies, ranging from the separatist pro-PKK Democratic Peoples' Party (HDP) to radical Turkish nationalists, from militant secularists to romantic religionists, who are at each other's throats, comes to power with the goal of "getting rid of Erdoğan" and then "putting the issues on ice after the election and dealing with them."

Such a coalition made up of actors who have vowed to seek approval from their six other partners on every step, led by the Republican People's Party (CHP) Chair Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, whose initiative is limited even in the Presidency, would only deepen existing problems.

Would it not be a miracle for the windmill – that turns thanks to Erdoğan's ability to take the initiative – to move under the Presidency of a confused group led by Kılıçdaroğlu that has not even announced its plans or manifesto?

Undoubtedly, the passage of a confused and indecisive group that cannot even declare its plans and manifesto, in place of Erdoğan's ambitious and powerful Türkiye, would not only create chaos in the country, but also disrupt the balance of power in the whole region. It would increase the influence of China, which is infiltrating the region, particularly Iran, which has snatched Saudi Arabia from the hands of the United States.

In the end, the West, dreaming of a weak Türkiye that they can easily exploit, would foster dangerous rivals. Instead of Türkiye, which fulfills its commitments economically, legally, and ultimately politically, a neighboring problem like Syria could arise.

The Western bloc must understand that the Orientalist paradigm has changed, new poles have emerged, and new balances have formed. So they must question their classical position. Otherwise, they will be late in the new era.