The China-brokered deal between Iran and Saudi Arabia has brought new excitement to the region, but it shouldn't be seen as a mere regional diplomatic improvement. Yes, it is between only two nations, but it is a harbinger of many things. It should be.
Some balls may have already started rolling in our neighborhood, but the current state of affairs leaves much to be desired.
Russia summoned Syrian leader Bashar Assad to Moscow. Syria and Iran's deputy foreign ministers would join Turkish and Russian counterparts in a quadrilateral meeting so that four foreign ministers could get together, and they would prepare the leaders of the four countries would get together ... But it didn't work because of "technical reasons." The "technical reason" lies with Russia, but we must look back to comprehend the issue's importance.
Iran, as we all know by now, is to the Russian Federation what the satellite states were to the Soviet Union. Poland, Romania, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, Bulgaria, East Germany, Yugoslavia and Albania (until they broke off from it in 1948 and 1960, respectively) were aligned with Moscow under the influence and pressure of the USSR. The Kremlin would assist them, but at the end of the day, it was challenging to say what side of the ledger was heavy. The West would tell those countries that the debit side was more severe than the credit side; the Soviets were taking advantage of them. Yet, the memories of the two world wars, the impact of the socialistic ideologies, and fear of economic exploitation by the capitalistic imperialism of Western Europe and the U.S. had kept those countries somehow shackled to Moscow, some in the military pact it created, some only in a romantic relationship. When neither the Warsaw Pact nor Comecon (the Council for Mutual Economic Assistance, an economic organization from 1949 to 1991 under the leadership of the Soviet Union) was able to provide any credit but only debit to the satellite countries, the entire venture collapsed with the Berlin Wall.
The Russian Federation, the core entity of the former Soviet Union, could not play the role of a master to any client state because it could not lend any benefit economically, politically or militarily to any nation after recovering from the collapse of the USSR. Yet, the Russian Federation inherited some countries from the USSR (six post-Soviet states and the Syria Arab Republic), and, thanks to the U.S. efforts to "de-democratization" some "non-democratic" countries, and Iran among them, could be considered Russia's modern-times satellite-states. Whether the post-Soviet Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization, consisting of Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, is working could be discussed to death. Still, it is not the issue I'd like to pass in today. Instead, Russia's relationship with Iran and Syria is the subject I'd like to dwell on. It is also the area on which the glad tidings promised by the China-brokered peace deal between Iran and Saudi Arabia will work. Mainly, Iran's unhealthy relationship with Syria and Assad's toxic leadership in his country should focus on whether China's good influence will have a long-term impact on the region.
If we have to get straight to the point, we have to say that the leadership role of Russia in general, and the guidance of Russian President Vladimir Putin in particular, are not working as effectively as they used to. During the periods that the more isolated Iran felt, the Iran-Russian relations seemed functional; the Iranian mullahs looked like they were listening to the Russian leadership, especially on the so-called Shia Crescent extending from Yemen, through the Gulf region, Iraq and Syria to Lebanon and some other international issues. Of course, the expectations of Russia and Iran could not be identical, but if you act as a friend of Russia, you are not supposed to fire rockets over the already hot waters of the Persian Gulf. Iran, and even Syria, whose only ally on the face of the Earth is Russia, are not paying attention to the basic rule that what is good for Russia is suitable for its friends.
But Iran and Syria invited the U.S. into the region. No one, ally or not, who can read the contemporary Middle East map correctly, cannot have any interest in the dismemberment of Syria, let alone in the creation of an independent "Kurdistan" which would not only make Turkish blood run cold but also be the reason for a regional (if not international) war for the decades to come. So Iran and Syria, hand in hand, managed to lead the entire region in a pretty merry dance today.
But the Russian leadership, for this or that reason, seems to fail to curb its clients in Tehran and Damascus and get the region out of fast approaching disaster. Maybe, Putin had bitten off more than he could chew. He was (perhaps, still is) a perfect match to counter the schemes of U.S. initiatives to re-map the Middle East as the neoliberals or neoconservatives envisage; but, in short, he has his plate full thanks to the U.S. neoliberals or neoconservatives.
Türkiye has been pushing its partners at the Astana Process to solve the Syrian civil war for almost two years; on Dec. 28, 2022, the Turkish, Russian and Syrian defense ministers met in Moscow to discuss the Syrian issue and agreed to continue the tripartite meetings to ensure stability in Syria and the wider region. But last week, a meeting at the level of deputy foreign ministers between Türkiye, Russia, and Syria, the ministerial – and perhaps a presidential – summit has been postponed to an unspecified date.
Three months ago, the Syrian newspaper Al-Watan, quoting an anonymous source in Damascus, reported that Türkiye has agreed to entirely withdraw its military from northern Syria following tripartite talks it held with the Syrian regime and Russia. Suppose Syrians thought that Türkiye was willing to let the Syrian government provide security in the parts of the north of their country. Shouldn't they push Russians to act upon the possibility of this drastic security policy change by Türkiye? Such change would necessitate Syria itself to reclaim one-third of their country from what the U.S. calls the "Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AANES)," (also known as Rojava, a de facto autonomous region in northeastern Syria consisting of self-governing areas of Afrin, Jazira, Euphrates, Raqqa, Tabqa, Manbij and Deir el-Zour). Two weeks ago, Gen. Mark A. Milley, U.S. chairperson of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and Gen. Michael Kurilla, commander of U.S. Central Command, visited AANES and shook hands with Ferhat Abdi Şahin (code-named Mazloum Kobani), a terrorist wanted by Türkiye since 2012 for several crimes he committed in the southeastern part of the country.
The U.S. policy of dismembering Iraq and Syria and having the PKK terrorist organization create an independent state is a natural and severe threat to the territorial integrity of Syria, and Assad could do nothing to prevent it.
If Syria thought Türkiye was ready to let it eliminate the terrorist threat in Syria, shouldn't it sit at the table and work the details? But, no! Not Syria and their patrons in Tehran. On the contrary, Türkiye has been urging the Astana partners to hasten a political solution to the Syrian problem.
I guess Syria is dragging its feet (and Iran is urging them to do it) because Russia could (or would) not hasten them to get their acts together. Russia should know better than anyone else that Türkiye has no intention to invade a part of Syria or Iraq and stay there. But Iran and Syria are concerned that Türkiye is in Syria for good.
Enter China! On March 10, Saudi Arabia and Iran announced an agreement to restore bilateral relations. According to some Arab commentators, "the deal was conceived out of need and out of desire." The Saudi-Iranian conflict was harmful to both nations and disastrous to the Middle East." However, without the Chinese involvement and desire to fill the void left by Russia, both countries would continue counting their losses.
Even Russia's government-controlled online news site Russia Today praised China's new role:
"It was the first ever deal of its kind overseen by China, framing itself as a peacemaker and showing that its commitment to have good relations with every country in the region is not just based on rhetoric but actual substance. Some have described it as a sign of a 'changing global order.'"
Thanks to Putin's mismanagement, all the problems either developed naturally (like the population problem due to the death rate outpacing birth rates since 1993) or were created by the system and exacerbated by the U.S. (like the Ukraine issue).
Now that the long archrivals are turning into each other's long-lost brother over the Gulf, China, having demonstrated its credentials as a trustworthy global player, is ready to assume its place as a regional diplomatic partner. This fact stirred Assad, who hit the road and got closeted with Putin one-on-one for over an hour.
So, China Factor should be in action. Let's hope it will continue to bear more fruits soon.
"Long Live Uncle Xi for Ten Thousand Years." (Sorry, that was Chairman Mao; I am confused!)
