In the dynamic landscape of global politics, Türkiye’s bid for membership in the BRICS group – which includes Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Ethiopia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) – represents a strategic move poised to reshape its future. Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan’s recent attendance at the BRICS meetings in Nizhny Novgorod, Russia, underscores Türkiye’s efforts to refine its foreign policy. Although Türkiye has not yet formally applied for membership, Fidan expressed interest in joining BRICS during his recent visit to Beijing.

Although Türkiye appears poised to join the BRICS group, several uncertainties remain, including the extent of Russian and Chinese support for Ankara, domestic debates about the membership and reactions from Türkiye’s Western allies. While Russia endorses Türkiye’s membership, the U.S. and other allies voice concerns about Ankara’s potential shift in foreign policy. From Russia’s viewpoint, Türkiye’s potential inclusion in BRICS is strategically multifaceted. Russia perceives Türkiye’s potential inclusion as a move that could enhance the group’s global influence and sees benefits in boosting trade and investment opportunities within the BRICS framework. Politically, Russia and Türkiye share a complex relationship characterized by both cooperation and competition. Thus, Russia might consider Türkiye’s BRICS membership as a means to reinforce their political alignment on specific international issues while simultaneously managing their regional rivalries.

Türkiye’s allies, on the other hand, have different voices. The U.S. ambassador to Türkiye, U.S. envoy Jeff Flake, expressed his hope that Türkiye would not join BRICS but noted that such a move would not alter its alignment with the West. In light of Türkiye’s EU membership process, some EU countries have reservations about Ankara’s quest for greater strategic autonomy through BRICS membership, viewing it as a potential yet contradictory foreign policy direction in the context of EU-Türkiye relations. Domestically, President Erdoğan’s advocacy for BRICS membership has received as much support as it has criticism. However, Türkiye sees joining BRICS as a way to diversify its foreign policy, fitting into its broader strategy of compartmentalization. Türkiye’s potential BRICS membership is not seen as an alternative grand strategy but rather as a part of its overarching goal to achieve relative strategic autonomy in world politics.

Why does Türkiye want to join BRICS?

Türkiye’s interest in joining BRICS stems from multiple strategic imperatives that align with its broader goals, including economic diversification, geopolitical influence and strategic alignment. These objectives reflect Türkiye’s desire to enhance its role on the global stage and secure more diversified partnerships in both economic and political realms.

One of the primary motivations for Türkiye’s bid to join BRICS is economic diversification. Traditionally, Türkiye has maintained strong economic ties with Western economies, especially those in Europe and the U.S. However, economic volatility, political tensions and trade disputes have underscored the risks of over-reliance on these relationships. President Erdoğan’s trade-oriented foreign policy aligns well with Türkiye’s aspiration to join the BRICS group. By becoming a member, Türkiye aims to broaden its regional and global economic interactions, access new markets and enhance trade relations with major emerging economies. This strategy could spur economic growth and attract foreign investment, thus mitigating Türkiye’s vulnerability to economic fluctuations from Western influences.

Türkiye’s regional and global geopolitical aspirations are also a significant driving force behind its interest in joining BRICS. Membership in this group would provide Türkiye with a more prominent platform to influence both the global economic and political landscapes. This association would enable Türkiye to collaborate with other major emerging economies, jointly shaping international affairs and promoting a multipolar world order. In this regard, BRICS is seen as a complementary international maneuver that aligns with Türkiye’s goal of fostering a more stable and inclusive international order. Additionally, Türkiye’s broader foreign policy objectives include enhancing its role and influence within various multilateral organizations. BRICS membership supports this aim by integrating Türkiye into a coalition that is actively seeking to reform global governance, especially at a time when the legitimacy of the U.N. and other global institutions is increasingly questioned.

Finally, BRICS membership could serve as a strategic counterbalance to Türkiye’s traditional alliances with Western powers, enabling it to pursue a more independent and assertive foreign policy. This enhanced geopolitical influence would bolster Türkiye’s negotiating power within various international organizations, such as the U.N. and the G-20, thereby strengthening its position on the global stage.

Domestic front

While international attention is drawn to Ankara’s interest in BRICS, the domestic debate over BRICS membership within Türkiye is dynamic and multifaceted, reflecting a wide range of perspectives and concerns.

Proponents of BRICS membership argue that it would open significant economic opportunities for Türkiye. They highlight potential benefits such as increased trade, foreign investment, and market access, which could stimulate economic growth. However, critics raise concerns about the challenges, including the need to align Türkiye’s economic policies with those of BRICS countries, which may have different priorities and strategies. Skeptics question whether the tangible benefits of membership will outweigh the costs of adapting to a new economic bloc.

Another aspect of the debate considers the geopolitical impact of BRICS membership. Supporters highlight the geopolitical benefits, such as increased influence in global affairs and a more balanced foreign policy. They argue that aligning with BRICS could help Türkiye navigate its complex relationships with Western powers by providing alternative alliances and support. Conversely, opponents worry that closer alignment with BRICS could strain Türkiye’s relations with the West, including its NATO allies and the EU. Moreover, since BRICS does not promote a normative agenda, critics are concerned that it may undermine Türkiye’s aspirations to promote certain norms and values in the international system.

Whether Türkiye’s bid for BRICS membership materializes or not, the very pursuit underscores its strategic ambitions and reflects the evolving landscape of Türkiye’s foreign policy agenda.