Over the last decade, Türkiye’s defense industry has developed rapidly, and its products have repeatedly proven their military capabilities. The rapid defeat of the Ukrainian army against Russia was largely prevented by the TB2 drone, which has become a global brand in Türkiye’s defense industry. Similarly, in Nagorno-Karabakh, the TB2 proved to be a game-changer in favor of Azerbaijan in the conflict with Armenia. In addition to Syria, it helped Türkiye become a geopolitical player in the conflicts between northern Iraq and Libya. At this point, TB2 has shown that it is not only a military platform but also the dominant player in Türkiye’s defense market, with Baykar alone accounting for $1.7 billion (TL 54.6 billion) of Türkiye’s exports in 2023. However, the TB2 is only the most visible sign of a new era for Türkiye’s defense policy.

The innovation ecosystem emerging in the Turkish military-industrial complex has repositioned the country as a "techno-nation" and added a new identity element to Türkiye’s foreign policy outlook. This identity not only enables Türkiye to transform its military power into a regional brand but also transforms the defense industry into a springboard for the country’s expanding economy.

New player in global defense market

In addition to its military and geopolitical successes, Türkiye is no longer just a customer that Western countries have an appetite for but has become a rising star in the global defense market. While the Turkish defense and aerospace industry achieved an export figure of approximately $6 billion last year, the sector’s exports in the first two months of 2024 reached $632.7 million, an increase of 11.8% compared to the first two months of the previous year. While Baykar, last year’s defense and aerospace export champion, is challenging for second place in the global drone market, Turkish Aerospace Industries (TAI), which stands out with its manned and unmanned platforms, ranks second in the list. In recent weeks, TAI has introduced Türkiye’s first indigenous fighter jet, KAAN, to the sky. In this sense, Türkiye has demonstrated its claim to possess not only tactical and operational military power elements but also strategic platforms. This achievement was realized when the uncertainty concerning the procurement of F-16s between Türkiye and the United States continued.

Türkiye’s emergence as a rising country in the field of military innovation is also evidenced by newly announced data. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute’s (SIPRI) data, Türkiye’s defense industry exports will reach $4.3 billion in 2022 and $5.5 billion in 2023, an increase of 27.1%. Behind this rise lies Türkiye’s export of 230 types of products to 185 countries in different geographies. Thus, Türkiye has managed to become the 11th country in the global arms export market with the ratio it has. Türkiye’s defense and aerospace export portfolio has reached an all-time high.

It is likely that by the end of 2024, Türkiye will further increase its market share in the global arms trade, and the share of defense industry products in the national economy will have increased. In fact, while the average export value per kilogram in Türkiye is $1.57, the Turkish defense industry increased its export value per kilogram by 14% compared to the previous year. It exceeded $65, making a high contribution to the Turkish economy and indirectly to social welfare.

The import side of this success is also very important. According to SIPRI, Türkiye’s share of global arms imports fell by 29% from 2014-18 to 2019-23. This proves that under the Justice and Development Party (AK Party), Türkiye is getting closer every year to its goal of achieving strategic autonomy by reducing foreign dependence. More importantly, Türkiye is meeting the needs of Europe for military ammunition, which has increased its arms imports due to the war in Ukraine, and this is recapitalizing Türkiye’s role as an important player in Europe’s emerging defense and security architecture. According to SIPRI, arms imports to Europe increased by 94% in the 2019-2023 period compared to the previous five-year period, partly due to the war in Ukraine.

There is a clear pattern in the geopolitical portfolio of Türkiye’s arms trade. Among 185 countries, the top three exporters of arms and various military platforms and sub-parts from Türkiye are the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Qatar and Pakistan, the main recipients of arms exports. According to SIPRI, the UAE’s share of Türkiye’s arms exports is 15%, Qatar’s 13% and Pakistan’s 11%. The fact that defense trade between the two countries has reached 15% since the settlement of the disputed conflicts between Türkiye and the UAE a few years ago provides important evidence of Ankara’s ability to combine foreign policy and defense-industrial diplomacy. When the large-scale purchases signed between Türkiye and Saudi Arabia are taken into account, it is clear that Türkiye will be an important supplier for the rising military expenditures of the Gulf countries.

Türkiye’s rise in Africa, also an important defense market for Ankara, is also noteworthy. According to SIPRI, France was the third largest supplier to sub-Saharan Africa in 2019-23, accounting for 11% of the subregion’s arms imports. Türkiye was the fourth largest supplier by volume in 2023. It has a share of 6.3% due to the delivery of combat helicopters to Nigeria and training/fighter aircraft and drones to various countries.

Shifting dynamics

There are several important reasons behind this success. Firstly, a strategy centered on domestic and national military innovation processes in the defense industry. The resource generation logic that President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan insistently put into circulation in 2004 enabled the Turkish defense industry to establish a sustainable economic base. Erdoğan’s redirection of the $12 billion budget allocated for direct procurement to domestic and national projects was one of the strategic steps and a serious source of motivation for the main players in the military-industrial complex inside the country. The second was Ankara’s obligation to respond militarily to structural fragilities in Türkiye’s security environment. Indeed, the wave of insecurity that started with the Arab Spring led Türkiye to build its own technological architecture and military-industrial ecosystem. The 2012 ups and downs in Türkiye-West relations showed how important it was for Ankara to focus on its own defense industry.

The military conflicts in Syria, Iraq, Libya and Karabakh, on the other hand, have enabled faster identification of real needs in defense products and the development of new technologies. More importantly, these conflicts proved the effectiveness of Turkish products and military platforms in the field and increased their attractiveness in the global market. Thus, Ankara rapidly transformed its experience in conflicts into military innovation while building a resilient defense ecosystem. Its flexible policies in the defense market have transformed Ankara into a rising player in the different regional defense industry complexes.

Türkiye’s emergence as a future player in the arms trade and its consolidation of military power through its autonomy policy have several important consequences. One of the most important consequences is that Türkiye has one of the most capable armies in its region. Türkiye, which is already militarily strong, with its new technological architecture and the range of military doctrines it has developed, displays the appearance of a country that is ready for the future war environment.

Another important result is that Türkiye has become a projector of military power. This characteristic makes it necessary to define it beyond being an ordinary middle power. The possession of advanced military bases beyond its borders, such as in Syria, Iraq, Libya, Qatar and Somalia, expands Ankara’s geopolitical portfolio. More importantly, Türkiye has come to be seen as a partner country in critical security environments.

This transforms Türkiye into a country that can be partnered with large-scale countries on more problematic issues. In a medium-term projection, Türkiye is assuming a non-traditional role in the European security and defense ecosystem, especially in the aftermath of the Ukraine war, and is repositioning alliance relations within a structural architecture.