After 12 years of civil war, Syria is truly devastated. The trade is over, infrastructure collapsed and today, more than two-thirds of the country's territory is not under the control of the Bashar Assad regime.
Control in many regions is in the hands of terrorist organizations from the PKK and its Syrian affiliation YPG to Daesh. Thousands of foreign soldiers and agents are conducting operations on Syrian territory. Furthermore, millions of Syrian civilians are also refugees in neighboring countries and the European cities they reach.
Action must be taken before it is too late to extinguish this “fire,” which is rising from Syria and poisoning not only the region but also the whole world with its smoke. Recently, there has been a glimmer of hope in this regard.
The meeting of the defense ministers of Türkiye, Syria and Russia in Moscow was a very important step. Now, it is the turn of the foreign ministers. Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu, who will meet his U.S. counterpart, Antony Blinken, in Washington on Jan. 16-17, will sit down with his Syrian and Russian counterparts, Faisal Mikdad and Sergey Lavrov, in Moscow in the forthcoming weeks. It is also possible that there will be a fourth party at the meeting, such as the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which boosted ties with Damascus. The purpose of all this diplomacy traffic is to lay the groundwork for the leaders' meeting.
At this point, it is vital that President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who has not had any dialogue with Bashar Assad for a long time, evaluates the process calmly according to the emerging paradigms. Erdoğan has made it clear that he is a determined negotiator to clean the slate during the normalization process with Egypt and the UAE.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has reinforced his trust in Erdoğan, as he helped him breathe in the ongoing Ukraine-Russia war. He knows he can turn his back on Erdoğan without risking being stabbed. The European Union is also aware that Erdoğan will be influential in the Syrian crisis, due to his unique position in the Ukraine war and his contribution to peace with mediation efforts. Türkiye has no prejudices against projects that will stop the influx of refugees that cause economic, political and social problems in Western capitals.
The Syrian regime is aware that it is only thanks to Türkiye that it can get rid of the PKK/YPG, which has stolen its oil, and bring northern and northwestern Syria under regime control. The regime also knows that even if all others leave, the United States-controlled YPG will continue to grow like a weed inside the country.
In addition, U.S. support for the PKK is a provocative factor that pushes Ankara to fear that "the PKK/YPG corridor is being established up to the Mediterranean" and to military interventions to create a safe zone against it. Assad is also aware that this element of tension, which does not benefit him, harms his relations with Türkiye, which hosts 4 million citizens, and threatens its territorial integrity.
Washington, meanwhile, may revise its stance for certain reasons, even though it has repeatedly stated that countries have a negative view of any dialogue process with Damascus.
For example, Türkiye’s normalization with Damascus may reduce Iran's influence in Syria while counter-balancing Russia's influence. Furthermore, Türkiye may push Damascus to change its stance with its role in the normalization and rebuilding process.
Türkiye, which organizes efficient diplomacy based on regional interests overlapping with Israel, may become a channel of renegotiation for the U.S.
