The general elections in Türkiye have now crossed the borders of the country. Newspapers, magazines and strategic institutions of all major Western countries, including the United States, continental Europe and the United Kingdom, have begun to ponder the Turkish elections.

Due to the confrontation between Russia and the U.S., Russia started to care about the Turkish elections like never before, setting aside the NATO member countries. Moreover, a Chinese strategy institution published a report on Türkiye last week. The report mentions that Türkiye has reached the formation of developed countries, as the government conducted investments in the recent two decades.

Of course, the elections in Türkiye started to attract the interest of foreigners, primarily due to the foreign policy stance of the government.

The neutral and balanced policy of the Turkish government, especially the leader of the government, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, in the Russia-Ukraine war, his leadership in the Azerbaijan-Armenia war, and his triggering of the formation and maturation process of the Turkic States Organization (STO) is also a part of the new strategy with Türkiye and the Turkic states in Asia.

With the normalization process, Türkiye has reorganized its relations with Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Egypt and even Syria. Moreover, the relations between Israel and Türkiye, which were sour for about a decade, have reached the level of reassigning ambassadors reciprocally.

The military achievements of the country were not limited to Syria. Türkiye has also managed to turn the conflicts into influence in Karabakh and Libya under Erdoğan's leadership. Therefore, the government's robust stance is well known. The passive and scattered images of the opposition bloc give confidence to the global opponents of Türkiye that the opposition will drag the country into an interregnum. Therefore, friends and foes in the outside world have their teams to support at the next elections in Türkiye. In democracies, the people's vote brings the parties to power and takes them out of it, no matter what the global players wish.

The opposition bloc

When the opposition bloc came together about a year ago, they concluded on the first day that they would win the election and defeat the ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party). The opposition got hopeful due to the depressive course of the economy caused by the pandemic, the disruption of supply chains and the uncertainty caused by the Ukraine-Russia war. While the opposition continued to fight within itself, the government realized the problems it faced very well, described and solved them one by one.

Six months ago, all arrows indicated that the opposition seemed in the front, but today, step by step, the government has come to a better position than the opposition.

The votes of the AK Party, representing the People's Alliance, are measured to be around 40%, while its alliance partner, the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), is currently at 8.5%-9%. When we consider the Great Unity Party (BBP) as a part of the People's Alliance, the total votes of the alliance will round up to the win.

On the other hand, the opposition bloc could not name their presidential candidate four months before the finish line. They met around a table for a year and fought one another every day.

Opposition parties could not develop a policy over the past 4 1/2 years and could not put forward a political vision either. They believed they would also come and take over the government because the AK Party would lose power due to the economy and other reasons.

The voting rates of the opposition parties began to weaken one by one in the meantime. The Republican People's Party's (CHP) votes have fallen to 22%. The Good Party (IP) is backed by only 11%. The Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP), the unofficial seventh member of the" table of six," rose to about 12%-12.50%. Even if we count them as so and add them all together, the total votes of the opposition parties are not enough to form a government.

"The World’s Most Important Election in 2023 Will Be in Turkey," reads the heading of an analysis the other week in The Washington Post. Major newspapers have similar coverage nowadays in the West. Of course, if we look at the geopolitical stance of Türkiye and its influence from the Caucasus to Europe, the choice of Turkish people is indeed very critical for the globe.

Irony of fate

By the irony of fate, the distribution of votes today is very close to the electorate's choice at the previous general election.

And Erdoğan, who addresses the individual demands of the voters, manages to act more dynamically and appears to be in a more advantageous position. Opposition parties also face the challenges of nominating a candidate in the remaining four months, formulating a policy, and communicating this policy to the public.

One of the biggest problems of the opposition parties is that the HDP has not yet defined its position at the table. The "table for six" expects that the HDP will come quietly without making any demands and vote, without interfering much with anything. However, the HDP, as the second largest opposition party, also wants to be directly addressed in this election, wants to be valued and expresses its demands openly.

Opposition voters in Türkiye fear losing again. On the other hand, some conspirators assume that global powers will support the main opposition party and the opposition bloc, namely the table for six.

But the guests at the table, hence Türkiye's opposition parties, are in such a disorganized position, full of internal contradictions, without politics and vision that global powers will not be able to tidy up this mess.

I think the AK Party and the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), with a vision like the "Century of Türkiye" in front of them, will successfully complete this race, having completed the infrastructure and all essential investments of Türkiye, and prioritized a production and investment economy that one can now consider as an entrepreneurial economy.