When the Cold War ended, a temporary unipolar world order emerged, which relied on the unrivaled hegemony of the United States over international politics. Abusing its status as the world’s sole gendarmerie, the U.S. violated all international principles of legitimacy for invading a country, making the United Nations and the international law null and void. Thus, the end of the Cold War brought about a lack of order for the already anarchic structure of international relations. Unchecked and uncontrolled by rival powers, the U.S. invaded Afghanistan and Iraq and conducted massive military operations in Yemen with impunity.
While the U.S. began to withdraw from Iraq and Afghanistan without gaining any concrete advantages, Russia returned to the world stage during the Syrian war. Taking advantage of former U.S. President Barack Obama's administration’s hesitant and overcautious policies, Russia has become the dominant player in the Syrian crisis.
Russia had alternatives to deal with its escalating tension with NATO in Eastern Europe. Many international relations experts predicted that Russia would limit its expansionist ambitions in Ukraine with Crimea and the Donbass region. Instead, Russia opted for invading all of Ukraine.
Using Ukraine as bait for Russia, the leading Western powers benefited from the war in Ukraine to restructure the geopolitical balance of power, strengthen NATO and unite the Western alliance. On the other hand, Russia underestimated Ukraine’s will and capacity to resist an all-out invasion, mistaking present-day Ukraine with the weak country they defeated in 2014. Back then, Ukraine did not have a strong army, while a majority of the people sympathized with Russia. Due to the invasions of Crimea and Donbass, however, 75% of the Ukrainian people have become anti-Russia. Moreover, Ukraine has strengthened its army with the support of the Western powers.
Even though Russia could lay waste to all cities in Ukraine, it is impossible to defeat a country of 40 million united to resist the Russian invasion. Moreover, if Russia decides to prolong the war, its military could be bogged down in Ukrainian mud due to the constant military aid Ukraine would receive from its Western allies. Under these circumstances, hundreds of thousands of civilians suffer before the world.
Unlike the wars in Iraq, Afghanistan or Syria, the war in Ukraine has been closely followed by the Western media. Even if Russia decides to end its invasion today, the Russian economy will suffer the consequences of international sanctions for months to come. Even though Russia is undoubtedly a part of the Western civilization, we are currently witnessing the emergence of a fundamental rupture between Russia and the West.
Since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, Turkey has been diligently seeking a solution for the ongoing crisis. Strongly supported by the Turkish public, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has almost undertaken the function of the U.N. secretary-general. While maintaining a neutral stance as a NATO member, Turkey has succeeded in maintaining a dialogue with Moscow to convince Russia to reconcile with Ukraine. Turkey’s unique position in the Ukrainian crisis derives from its rising status as a regional power and its pro-active foreign policy.
Although Russia and Turkey have conflicting interests in several issues, Turkey successfully negotiated with Russia by appreciating its position and power. Although the Western powers currently stand against Russia by imposing sanctions and supporting the Ukrainian militarily, they will also need to learn how to negotiate with Russia to reach a reasonable agreement.
