The 2023 elections in Turkey could be the most original contest in our nation’s political history – for several reasons. In addition to having the longest campaign period, the upcoming election will presumably focus more than ever on its aftermath. It is no secret that every single election in the multiparty era has been deemed extremely critical. Looking back at Turkey’s 20-year-long political transformation under President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, however, one could only describe it as "exceptional."
The country’s greatest accomplishment has been to ensure that civilian politics and politicians emerged as the primary decision-makers. As such, it is up to the politicians themselves to decide what kind of country Turkey will be after the 2023 election. For example, they could pledge to change the political system and, with enough support and an adequate number of parliamentary seats, implement that proposal. One could obviously come up with many more examples. They could also adopt new policies in national security and other issues that used to be called “high politics” as well.
Politicians have that ability today thanks to the Justice and Development Party's (AK Party) success against the tutelage regime, which used to keep civilian politics under pressure. In other words, Erdoğan made the political elite privileged and critical by overcoming the e-memorandum of 2007, the closure case against his party as well as the 2013 and 2016 coup attempts to finally facilitate the transition to presidentialism in 2017.
Indeed, Turkey debates “the nature of democracy” and “polarization in politics” so fiercely today because politics have accumulated critical importance. Leave aside those folks who sing the praises of the 1990s. Even the opposition parties know, though they won’t admit it, that politicians had never exercised so much power over Turkey’s future in the pre-Erdoğan period. Clearly, that ability to call the shots comes with a heavy burden. That’s why politicians can no longer win over the electorate by criticizing or making accusations against their opponents.
Instead, the Turkish people demand the kind of leadership, vision and agenda to take this great country forward after 2023. The opposition, which once thought that it was destined to win the next election, becomes increasingly aware of that fact, too, as more people admit that the 2023 election is not a sure thing and, even if they were to win, they could find it difficult to govern. They add that “Erdoğan could win yet again, unless the opposition forms a grand alliance and makes plans for the transition, too.” Clearly, though, those folks who warn against the possibility of losing – who say that time is running out, who call on the opposition to contemplate the transition first, and demand a new alliance – all want to carve out more room for themselves.
Still, those folks are not entirely wrong. The opposition is not in a position to present the people with a candidate and a political platform that could compete against Erdoğan’s track record and what he means for the country. In other words, anti-Erdoğanism no longer remains a hot commodity. Indeed, the electorate does not tie its hopes to the opposition, instead, they expect the ruling party to address the pressing economic problems.
Here's why: It remains unclear to voters whether the opposition has what it takes to be a viable alternative for Turkey after 2023. The brain trust behind the opposition, which tells them that they need “a story” or “a crazy project,” knows that too.
Deepening uncertainty in the international system and ongoing problems in Turkey’s neighborhood make the Turkish people think about the election’s aftermath more and more. The 6+1 opposition parties, which have no way of agreeing on what to do in key areas, do not give a lot of confidence to the electorate. Even in the absence of a fierce war of words among rival political parties, some voters are deeply concerned about “national survival” due to unanswered questions about Turkey’s post-2023 future.
As the leader, who most appreciates “the priority of politics” within the framework of party politics, foreign policy and the economy, Erdoğan remains highly likely to win the 2023 election in Turkey.
