The brutal war that Russia is raging against Ukraine is still going on after one month. The civilian losses are immense. In the city of Mariupol, the majority of buildings have been destroyed, hospitals have been shut down and children and pregnant women have been killed.

In this humanitarian disaster, Turkey has taken a very important initiative in bringing the two sides together on its soil. It first brought the two sides together in the Turkish city of Antalya, where the Russian and Ukrainian foreign ministers met for negotiations. Now in Istanbul, delegations from both sides are meeting on March 29. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan recently spoke with his Russian counterpart President Vladimir Putin and they agreed on holding peace talks in Istanbul in the near future, too.

Why Putin is in a tight position

Most Russian analysts say that Putin is in a very difficult situation because he obviously miscalculated and underestimated the extent of Ukraine's resilience. The Russian military cannot push forward around the capital Kyiv and the psychological strength of Russian soldiers is reportedly diminishing. The Russian military was not prepared and it is difficult for them to fight against soldiers of the same faith and ethnicity.

On the other hand, Ukraine has lost a lot of its infrastructure and wealth. The cities are devastated and thousands of people have been killed.

Therefore, both sides are nearer to settlement. However, is there hope for the Istanbul talks? I don’t think so ... Although the sides are closer to reaching a settlement, there seems to be no possibility for peace in the near future. Russia cannot proceed but it cannot retreat either, so there needs to be a formulation that is not depicted as a total loss for Putin to accept. Unfortunately, there seems to be no agreement on such a scenario at the moment. In this paradigm, Turkey continues its diplomatic efforts.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that peace must be established immediately. Ukraine seems to be more open to dialogue now. Russia is focusing more on the east since it can’t proceed on other fronts.

Diplomatic success

I should stress that Turkey’s efforts for peace are a big success in diplomacy whether there will be immediate peace or not. In a world so divided between Russian hinterland countries and the West, Turkey is one of the very few who can talk to both sides and definitely the strongest to oppose the invasion but maintain dialogue with Russia. That gives Ankara a very unique position.

I think the world should emerge from this Cold War atmosphere as soon as possible, otherwise the divisions will be sharper, the conflicts will rise and, economically, people all around the world will be badly affected...