The global economic-political system is currently navigating through the challenges posed by the third “Hundred Years’ War” that originally commenced during the Cold War in the 1950s.
The beginning of the first Hundred Years’ War, representing the onset of the Industrial Revolution, which started with the Industrial Revolution in 1750 and culminated in the American Civil War, marked by technological advancements on one side and the initial transition from coal to oil, included the participation of China, India, Pakistan and the Ottoman Empire within the “Third World.” At that time, the Third World accounted for 73% of global goods and services production.
Europe’s share in world production was 23.2%, and the United States’s cut was only 0.1%. In just one century, Europe increased its share in world production of goods and services to 62%, and the U.S. to 23.6%. The share of the Third World decreased to 11%. The turning points of the first “Hundred Years’ War” were the British Empire’s invasion of India in 1757 and the establishment of the U.S. in 1776.
The second ‘Hundred Years’ War’ refers to the process of the British Empire gaining and losing leadership of the capitalist system between 1850 and 1950. During this period, when the steam and electric revolutions took place, Britain and France themselves led the way in ending slavery-based competition. The same two countries brought China to its knees after the first Opium War between 1839-1842 and the second Opium Wars between 1858-1860, and after India, China also lost its share in world production. So much so that, in one century, from 1878 to 1978, China’s share in world production collapsed to 2%. Southern states in the U.S. that resisted the abolition of slavery were defeated by the Northern states, which received financial and military support from Britain and France. Britain, the leader of industrialization, also declared its leadership in the capitalist system. However, its loss of military power, along with its financial collapse, caused it to lose leadership at the end of World War II.
We need to divide the third “Hundred Years’ War” period into two. The first 50-year period was when the U.S. was in absolute dominance of the capitalist system and the global order it established after World War II. However, the second 50-year period between 2000 and 2050 presents many difficulties for the U.S.
The Third World, which represented 75% of the world economy in the early 1750s, is once again on the global stage and is emboldened as the rising Global South since 2010. So much so that, while the E7 Group, consisting of China, India, Brazil, Russia, Mexico, Türkiye and Indonesia, was only half the size of the G-7 Group in 1995, it became equal in 2015, and in 2050, E7 will be twice the size of the G-7. What this means is the fact that the U.S. will not be the leader of the capitalist system and the global order at the end of the third “Hundred Years’ War.” India and Türkiye will shape how this war will end.
This is the essence of the situation we are witnessing in the sadness of the Middle East and Africa today, where humanitarian values are disregarded. The tremblors and aftershocks caused by two “black swans,” namely COVID-19 and the Russia-Ukraine war, show that the last stage of this difficult process between 2020 and 2050 will be quite a burden to bear. It also points out that countries should strengthen their opportunities and capabilities to become self-sufficient economies in strategic areas such as defense, energy, food and water, critical minerals and digital technologies, in line with the concept of “strategic autonomy.”
For this reason, embracing Eurasia with the “Century of Türkiye” during the fourth “Hundred-Year Wars” that will prevail between 2050 and 2150 will mean permanent peace and development for our geography.
