As if the current difficulties were not enough, where the multilayered solution efforts of the world's leading economies to eliminate the main and aftershock effects of the two "black swans," the global pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine War, continue, we are entering an autumn and winter period where many additional difficulties are expected in terms of both energy and food supply security. French President Emmanuel Macron's words, after the Cabinet meeting two days ago, that "the era of abundance is over, freedom has a price, everyone will make sacrifices" is a clear message in terms of the risks to energy and food supply security that seem to be at the door. At the same time, it has inflamed debates in French society.
Another global problem resurrected by the economic and commercial trauma caused by the two black swans is "stockpiling," or "hoarding" in other words. In the period of the COVID-19 global virus epidemic, in addition to the difficulties of countries in the supply of many goods and services, raw materials and intermediate products, when some countries confiscated goods and products belonging to others at airports or logistics centers, individuals, companies, and even countries all over the world they concentrated on a "stockpiling," "hoarding" tendency toward agriculture, food, hygienic products, chips, rare metals, all strategic products. This trend had two main consequences: Global inflation and energy and food 'nationalism,' with the nations becoming selfish in terms of sharing their resources with other countries amid the food and energy crisis.
The "energy crisis" as a result of the Russia-Ukraine War, which is having much deeper and more complex elements than the 'oil crises' of the 1970s, triggered a serious price jump starting from oil, natural gas and coal to fuel products produced at refineries. The end of the debates on 'global inflation' largely depends on the re-normalization of the global trend of 'stockpiling' or 'hoarding', disruptions in the global supply chain, and of container and transportation, logistics and energy costs. The search for extra 'stockpiling' and 'hoarding', triggered by 'energy and food nationalism', makes things difficult. For this reason, the success of the European Union member countries to manage the coming autumn and winter with an understanding in line with EU norms, mutual cooperation, and solidarity will create an important opportunity for the slowdown, decline and extinction of global inflation.
Otherwise, if EU member states cannot manage the energy and food security crisis in unity and solidarity, if European leaders' calls for sacrifice 'in the name of democracy and freedom' remain idle, if 'energy and food nationalism' further deepens, this, in turn, will unfortunately have negative effects on the course of global inflation. If this situation intensifies the pressures on 'tight monetary policy' for the U.S. and European central banks, both geographies will also face the risks of heavy recession, stagflation and rise of unemployment. Therefore, along with the two black swans, an important ‘assessment of humanity’ awaits the developed economies of the world. Either a strong regional and global solidarity and cooperation, or a prolonged period of global inflation and impoverishment. I hope the spirit of unity and togetherness prevails.
