The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has released its new global "Economic Outlook Report." The report, by making important determinations about the costs of the Russia-Ukraine war, points out that the increasing problems in the European continent, which is an important actor in the global economy, especially in terms of consumption and imports, negatively affect global growth. Undoubtedly, both Latin America and East and Southeast Asia are relatively more sheltered from the main and aftershocks of the war, and they are also tending to the wounds of the global pandemic. However, the serious turmoil in China's mortgage market and the challenges brought by the zero coronavirus case policy exceptionally highlight some challenges for the Chinese economy.

In the previous June report, the OECD, which pointed to the projections for 2022 global growth in the band of 4% and 4.5%, has reduced its 2022 global growth forecast to 3% as the cost of the war has multiplied. With the prediction that the uncertainties regarding the global economy and politics will extend to 2023, it has also reduced its global growth forecast for 2023 by 0.75 points to 2.25%. Increasing its 2022 growth forecast for Türkiye from 3.7% to 5.4%, the OECD predicts that Türkiye will end 2022 in the top three among G-20 countries and in the top two among OECD member countries in terms of growth. The year-end inflation rate forecast for Türkiye is 71%. However, mathematical corrections will begin in the price increase rates and inflation rates based on Türkiye's consumer prices index (CPI) and producer price index (PPI) indices as of November and December. Therefore, the OECD's year-end forecast may remain high.

The first of the three main risks emphasized by the OECD is about the energy crisis. In order for Europe to be the least affected by the escalating energy crisis due to the war, it must reduce demand. If the natural gas demand of households and industries cannot be managed, serious energy supply shortages will occur. In fact, the number of factories closing contact in Europe in the iron-steel and fertilizer sectors is increasing day by day. Because demand cannot be reduced, many companies are experiencing losses due to abnormally increased natural gas prices, and if this situation continues, the risk of inflation and growth may escalate in Europe. The second main risk for the OECD is emerging country markets. The debt burden is constantly increasing in the leading emerging economies and unfortunately also in the least developed economies. For this reason, it is feared that countries will be unable to pay their debts. In addition to this, increasing risks in the housing market in the Chinese economy, the world's most important emerging economy, are frightening.

The third global risk pointed out by the OECD is the risks arising from the global supply chain. Yes, as the impact of the global pandemic diminishes, the problems in the global supply chain are relatively decreasing; however, the risks in the global supply chain may deepen again, depending on the situation that may change at any moment regarding the global pandemic and the uncertainties brought by the war. As a solution, the OECD recommends that the leading economies provide financial support to households and the real sector while suggesting that this support should remain at a level that will not disrupt the budget balances. The discussed rate for this financial support is 5% of the country's gross domestic product (GDP). In the name of energy and food security, it is recommended that developed economies, in particular, develop policies that focus on energy and food savings. The proposal for a tightened monetary policy in the fight against inflation is largely a memorized fact, and everyone is aware that this measure also increases both the public interest burden and the budget deficit, and has a very negative impact on growth.