Similar to the French Revolutionary Wars and the Napoleonic Wars period (1789-1814), the intensified imperialist period (1871-1914) and the interwar period (between the two world wars (1919-1939), today’s world has been experiencing one of the most unstable periods in recent modern times. The order-based world order has collapsed since the powers who established the current global system systematically violated international rules, principles, norms and regimes. The world system is in a deep crisis. Unfortunately, the most recent governments and political actors in the West contribute to the global political, economic and social crises.
Recently, Western countries have been largely governed by far-rightist, ultra-nationalist and fascist governments. The rising political powers in the West largely oppose globalization, universalism, human rights, cosmopolitanism and multilateralism. Far-right leaders Donald Trump and Boris Johnson came to power in the United States and the United Kingdom, the two well-known liberal democracies. Interestingly, other politicians in these countries are no different from these two. The latest European Union parliamentary elections held last week are a clear indication of this dangerous tendency.
According to the preliminary results, far-right political parties have made significant gains against relatively mainstream political parties in the last European Union parliamentary elections. Political actors in power, such as German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, French President Emmanuel Macron and Austrian Chancellor Karl Nehammer, suffered a major blow. Far-right political parties have come first in some countries (France, Italy and Austria), while some others (Germany and the Netherlands) coming second in many other countries. For instance, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party will be in second place among the 720 parliamentarians elected in the 27 EU countries. On the other hand, the crushing defeat by Macron has led him to dissolve the Parliament and announce the snap elections with two rounds to be held on June 30 and July 7.
When we look at the main implications of the EU parliamentary election results, we can easily see that the results will mainly play a negative role in international politics. Below, I will summarize some of these implications.
First of all, the results will empower the impact of Eurosceptics in Europe. The Eurosceptics who do not believe in the EU's common values will dominate the European Parliament for the next five years. The election results show that European people are more anti-European than before and they have lost their belief in the EU values. Although mainstream and pro-European parties have remained the dominant forces in the Parliament, some pro-European parties have suffered great losses. Extremes on the left and the right have gained support throughout the continent. In other words, if they succeed in uniting their powers, the Eurosceptic political parties will form a large bloc in the next Parliament and the impact of anti-European parties will increase during the next term.
Second, the EU parliamentary election results revealed a new political fault line between the northern-tier European countries (Sweden, Denmark and Finland) and the southern-tier European countries. While far-rightist political powers have increased their votes in the southern-tier countries, their shares in Scandinavian countries have decreased. Left-wing and green parties have increased their votes in the second group of states. With the rise of ultra-nationalist political parties, multilateral political and economic platforms, that is, the EU institutions, will lose their importance, since ultra-nationalists do not trust the EU institutions.
Third, it is still too difficult for the far-rightist political parties to form a united front at the European Parliament. Far-rightist political parties agree in their opposition but differ in their future expectations. They are all against the EU, globalization, multiculturalism and immigration. However, they strictly follow nationalist policies that contradict one another.
Fourth, the election results in Europe will motivate far-rightist political actors in other parts of the world, such as India. The actors of ultra-nationalism, in principle, play a zero-sum game in international politics. Therefore, the EU election results will contribute to the global political instability. As a result, it will intensify the global rivalry between Western and non-Western global powers and deepen the regional and global crises.
Finally, the election results have shown that most mainstream governments have lost their positions in many European countries. For example, governments in France and Germany have lost their seats in the parliament. When we look at the policies of the mainstream political parties, we can easily infer that there is not too much difference between mainstream political parties and far-rightist ones. For instance, there is not much difference between the government of Social Democrat Olaf Scholz from the policies of a far-rightist political party in many issue areas, including the Palestinian-Israeli question. Therefore, people naturally choose to vote for the real political forces, not the fake ones.
As a result, the loss of real mainstream political actors in Europe has led the European people to vote for far-rightist political parties. Considering the solid interdependence among the states, sooner or later it will end up with great damage in many European states. The continuation of this process will end up in a destructive political and social atmosphere, not only in Europe but in the whole world.
