The al-Aqsa Flood operation carried out by Hamas on Oct. 7 created a significant rupture in both the Palestine-Israel issue and the Middle East region. Israel, which was in a very difficult situation in the face of Hamas’ resistance, chose to take out its anger on innocent people. To date, more than 20,000 innocent people, most of whom are children and women, have been martyred by the Israeli occupation forces. Supported by the majority of the Western states, especially the United States, Israel did not refrain from committing war crimes, crimes against humanity and genocide in Gaza. Israel unabashedly violated the basic principles and norms of international law and the decisions of international organizations on the subject.

In the last days of 2023, the innocent people of Gaza could not avoid being the target of Israeli bombs and being massacred by a huge war machine, in front of the eyes of the whole world. In this article, I will briefly analyze what will happen to the people of Gaza in 2024.

First of all, al-Aqsa Flood has indicated that the resistance of the Palestinian people will continue. Contrary to their claims, Israel and its supporters cannot eliminate Hamas, a native and independent movement born in Gaza. Considering the realities on the ground, it can be seen that the Israeli occupation forces are targeting innocent civilians rather than Hamas fighters.

Furthermore, there is no effective alternative to Hamas for the people of Palestine in general and Gaza in particular. There is no organization other than Hamas that can effectively respond to the "gradual genocide" that Palestinians have been subjected to by Israel for a long time. In other words, Hamas is the only effective organization representing the Palestinian people fighting against the Israeli occupation. The Fatah organization remained far away from its traditional influence due to its leader, the elderly and sick Mahmoud Abbas.

Israeli challenges: Gaza control unlikely, political deadlock

Secondly, the possibility of Israel taking Gaza under control is very low. Even these days when there is unlimited use of force and all kinds of crimes against humanity are being committed, Israel, which sent troops into Gaza, could not get what it wanted. Furthermore, Israeli politics faces a serious deadlock. Israel, which does not have an effective method of fighting Hamas, has no meaningful idea about the future of Gaza. Therefore, Hamas will continue to remain as the main "other/threat" for Israel.

On the other hand, contrary to the claims of Israeli officials and some Western politicians, the possibility of Israel achieving its goal of dehumanization and de-Palestinization of Gaza is very low. In spite of all the disadvantages that they have, the Palestinians will not leave their homeland. If they are forced to do so, the likelihood of the Jordanian and Egyptian states accepting this highly aware population on their own lands is quite low.

Third, al-Aqsa Flood has made Israeli politics, which is already fragile and fragmented, even more unstable. It seems that the current coalition of far-right parties cannot continue. It is very likely that the Benjamin Netanyahu government will fall immediately after the attacks slow down and a new process begins. However, considering that Prime Minister Netanyahu is the relatively most moderate politician in the current coalition, Netanyahu’s falling from power will not mean the arrival of more reasonable actors in Israeli politics.

Fourthly, al-Aqsa Flood has caused the Western states to completely lose control of rationality limits and evolve into an irrational political line supported by the rising far-right political actors. The fact that Western states are recorded as complicit in every crime committed by Israel will therefore mean that the principles, norms and values instrumentalized by the Western states will be used less in the future. It is not possible to expect non-Western states to comply with the norms and principles that the Western states persistently and systematically violate. In addition, the respect and trust of Western peoples in their own states was greatly damaged.

Israel's fragile post-al-Aqsa period

In addition to all this, Israel, which had the safest and most comfortable period in its entire history during and after the Arab insurgencies and revolutions, has begun to experience one of its most fragile and weak periods after al-Aqsa Flood. Israel, seen as the biggest winner of the Arab insurgencies, lost a significant part of its gains after the attack. The fact that the air defense system, called the Iron Dome, became dysfunctional against Hamas’ relatively primitive aircraft became a reason for insecurity in itself. Israel, which could not get the results it wanted despite having used most of its weapons and ammunition, will have to struggle with its destroyed image and shaken psychology in the future.

Sixth, the "policy of normalizing Israel" pursued by some Arab regimes has also failed. After this, the possibility of Arab states entering into the normalization process with Israel and completing it successfully decreased. The U.S. wanted to bring together the Arab states and Israel through the agreements signed in the name of their ancestor Abraham. In fact, some very important steps have been taken in this direction. However, after Israel’s disproportionate use of force against the Palestinian people and committing genocide, anti-Israeli perceptions among the Arab people have reached a very high level. Arab regimes that have to take this into consideration must at least pause their "policy of normalizing Israel." In other words, Arab states could not get rid of the Palestine problem as they wanted and planned. In 2024, Arab states will most likely determine what policy they will follow regarding Palestine in the future.

In conclusion, it can be said that Hamas changed the balance in the Palestine-Israel issue after al-Aqsa Flood. In fact, the attack has even significantly influenced regional and global power balances. It affected the foreign policies of not only Israel but also Western states.

In 2024, world public opinion will continue to support the "global intifada" initiated by Hamas and consider Israel as a security problem. On the other hand, states and nonstate actors who want the norms of the global system to be implemented, will continue to look for ways out and solutions to deter Israel’s expansionist and aggressive policy, which it irresponsibly pursues with the support of the West.