Donald Trump, who seeks reelection in the United States, made headlines with his most recent comments on NATO. It is a well-known fact that he had previously described NATO as "obsolete" and condemned NATO allies that did not meet the 2% defense spending target. This time around, the former U.S. president told a crowd in South Carolina that he would encourage Russia to do "whatever the hell they want" to any NATO country that does not meet its financial obligations. He made those remarks shortly after the Republicans blocked military aid to Ukraine and Russian President Vladimir Putin blamed the war on NATO’s fifth enlargement in an interview.
Although all NATO allies have an obligation under Article 5 to defend any ally under attack, Trump went as far as to say that he would encourage Russia. The White House forcefully condemned former President Trump’s comments attesting to the rise of isolationism in the United States. More and more Americans seem to believe that the "liberal international order" that Washington created after the Cold War no longer serves U.S. interests.
Europe’s leaders, who realized what was happening due to the retreat from Afghanistan and the disruption in aid to Ukraine, have been saying more frequently that the continent has to be able to defend itself. French President Emmanuel Macron undoubtedly pioneered that effort with his idea of "strategic autonomy." On Jan. 31, he added that Europe’s future security architecture cannot be defined by the United States and Russia anymore, stressing that the continent must have the right to shape its own future. Accordingly, the French president argued that Europe should be ready to defend and support Ukraine regardless of Washington’s thinking.
The Germans, too, know that they need to prepare for emerging global threats. The country’s chief of defense, Gen. Carsten Breuer, announced on Feb. 11 that the Russian threat made it necessary for them to get ready for war within the next five years. Meanwhile, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg warned that any suggestion that NATO allies would not defend each other effectively undermined the security of all countries, including the United States. He underlined that all allies would retaliate against any attack against the alliance and called on Europe to mass-produce weapons for a possibly decadeslong conflict with Russia.
Unpacking Pandora's box
Trump’s comments exposed the Europeans – who already feared that Ukraine’s defeat would trigger an influx of 10 million refugees and continued Russian aggression – to the nightmare scenario of Washington not coming to the continent’s defense. Despite the risk of isolation, Europe’s failure to develop a qualified relationship with Türkiye remains a strategic weakness.
It appears that Trump will open a Pandora’s box for the Western alliance if he wins the U.S. presidential election in November. A strong advocate of "power-driven national interest," his victory would mark the beginning of a new era characterized by Russian aggression and the disregard for Israel’s massacres. One could argue, however, that the Biden administration has already opened that box by failing to stop the Israeli violence in Gaza.
The Western alliance – which, many thought, rested on values like freedoms, democracy and human rights – silently watches the mass killing of Palestinians to drag humanity into despair and the world into an "age of chaos," in the words of U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres.
The Russia-Ukraine war represented a major rupture already. At this point, we can tell how quickly great power competition turns into war. War is spreading and becoming more and more commonplace. Yet it was Israel’s massacre in Gaza that strikingly established that the powerful can disregard the law and humanity. Earlier this week, the Israeli army began to bomb Rafah – the last remaining "safe zone" inside Gaza. Ignoring the genocide case and the Biden administration’s supposed warning, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu shows the world that he can destroy all of Gaza – whether it’s hospitals, schools, U.N. institutions or 2 million civilians.
You decide which is worse: Trump’s pledge to defend whoever foots the bill or the Biden administration turning a blind eye to Netanyahu’s new massacres?