The direct confrontation between Iran and Israel remains under control – for now. Yet, it points to an emerging equilibrium in the region. There was already talk of escalating tensions in the Middle East around Gaza and Palestine in the wake of the Oct. 7 attack.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's massacres in Gaza reversed the normalization trend and dealt a heavy blow to Israel's international standing. Even the West's oft-criticized "unconditional support" could not stop the Western audiences from sympathizing with the Palestinians and criticizing Israel. As the two-state solution became the top item on the global agenda, some European nations, including Spain, inched closer to recognizing the State of Palestine.
It was under those conditions that Netanyahu carried out his country's April 1 attack in Damascus, which was intended to drag Iran into the ongoing war. It is possible to say that he got what he wanted in a certain way. Eager to maintain its reputation, deterrence and domestic support, the Iranian government conducted its first direct (albeit measured and previously flagged) attack against Israel. They will certainly take credit for successfully delivering their missiles to the Israeli airport, which was used in the Damascus attack, on the home front and across the region.
The Joe Biden administration, which does not want the Gaza crisis to evolve into a regional war, announced that it was not going to support Israel's potential counterattack against Iran – an attempt to limit the impact of Netanyahu's most recent move on the U.S. presidential election. That Iran's act of retaliation was very carefully calibrated, too, enabled Washington to assume that stance. Still, the Israeli prime minister holds the "Iran threat" card in his hand and thus carved out plenty of room for maneuver ahead of the November 2024 election. In other words, Netanyahu could start a new crisis when he gets the chance, which would put the Biden administration in a difficult spot. That is why Washington's policymakers will have to devote more time and energy to preventing further escalation between Iran and Israel.
Perhaps more importantly, the latest acts of retaliation enabled Israel and Iran, the two countries feeding off regional instability, to determine the level of tensions in the Middle East. With attention shifting away from the Gaza crisis, Tel Aviv and Tehran could try to align the policies of the remaining regional powers with the ongoing escalation. Hence Israel's remarks on forming a regional coalition against Iran.
Those nations that do not want the escalation between Iran and Israel to set the region's agenda should launch new initiatives. That would require Türkiye, Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states to further strengthen their bilateral cooperation and focus on diplomatic efforts geared toward regional peace and stability.
The Biden administration's lack of interest in getting dragged into a war with Iran over Benjamin Netanyahu's actions would certainly facilitate such steps.
The Middle East must not be sucked into a maelstrom of new tensions that would ultimately play into the hands of Iran and Israel's domestic regimes. Keeping a lid on such tensions would enable Iran and Israel to set the regional agenda, whereas the crisis spinning out of control would be a nightmare for the entire region.
In this sense, there is reason to expect President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who will launch a diplomatic blitz in the aftermath of Türkiye's municipal elections, to work more closely with world leaders to try and save the region from the Israeli-Iranian escalation.
