When the previous local elections were over, the opposition parties achieved significantly in addition to their usual defeats. The opposition won the mayor positions in Ankara and Istanbul, taking them away from the ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party).

The success of the opposition in the local elections, in a way, generated a presumption for the general election. Right after the election, the opposition parties acted as if they had won the presidential election.

It was glorious for the opposition, but the situation did not yield any positive results for Türkiye.

The day after the election, Türkiye entered the election environment again. Almost every evening, there were extraordinary discussions about the general elections in Türkiye, how the opposition would win, and how the AK Party would lose power.

Being an experienced party, the AK Party and its experienced leader knew the situation. They were constantly researching the stance of the AK Party and the total votes of the People's Alliance. This rational attitude has always kept the AK Party on a successful track. On the other hand, the opposition's attitude was similar to that of Nasraddin Hodja.

Hodja’s age, the opposition’s votes

A man once inquired about Hodja's age, and Nasreddin replied he was 40. After a few years passed, the same man asked Hodja again, "How old are you?"

Once more, Hodja responded with "40!"

The man then remarked, "Hodja, does your age never change?"

Hodja replied, "A true man stands by his words."

Nasreddin Hodja is a wise figure of Turkish folkloric history, a hero famous for humorous short stories and satirical anecdotes. The Nation Alliance and the Republican People's Party (CHP) claimed at the beginning of the last presidential elections that they won the election with 60%. And they never gave up on that claim. Similar to Nasreddin Hodja's age, they did not go back on their word.

Politics can demonstrate surprises in Türkiye. Votes might vary in extremes from week to week, month to month, year to year. Sometimes, a reflex of one party may cause a loss in the electorate, while a reflex of the other party may bring in unexpected voter choices.

The parties that formed the opposition bloc, Nation Alliance, as their intellectuals and journalists, began to believe they had won the election, just like the CHP members. They spent years discussing sharing the prize, as they were sure they would win the election: Who would be the vice-presidents, how many ministries would each party get, and how would the balances between these ministries and the six political party leaders? These constituted the agenda of the Nation Alliance for many months amid the electoral campaign.

Illusion of winning

The day before the presidential election, the Nation Alliance still believed that they would win the election and that they would make Kılıçdaroğlu the president.

Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who received 49.3% of the votes in the first round of the election, won the presidential race again with 52.3% of the votes in the runoff.

The CHP, Nation Alliance, and Kılıçdaroğlu, who spent the last four years in the false dream of winning the election, experienced extraordinary trauma with this defeat.

The internal conflicts and disputes within the CHP recently, the inability of the Good Party (IP) to reveal a political identity and vision, and the fact that the other four parties of the opposition bloc have almost no votes in their base make the opposition parties think deeply about the upcoming local elections.

The nightmare

While the internal fight continues in CHP, the columnists who set the agenda on behalf of the CHP are afraid of losing Istanbul, Ankara, and many other provinces.

Ekrem Imamoğlu, who won the Istanbul elections, could not achieve decent municipal success. He even became the worst mayor in recent decades. Since his initial high motivation was the presidential candidacy, he did not focus on and deal with the issues of Istanbul. He spent all his energy on becoming a presidential candidate.

He could not be a presidential candidate, and at the same time, he has quite a few problems with becoming the chairperson of the CHP, which has become his next target after the glorious loss of the presidential elections.

Imamoğlu, who lost everything he dreamed of for today, held a press conference and talked about how he was "sealed" in Istanbul. It is natural for Imamoglu, who does politics, essentially with the efforts of advertisers, to presume so. But I have doubts about whether the people of Istanbul are sealed to him. Istanbul will most likely turn its back on a person who turned his back on Istanbul.

At this point, an extraordinary fear gripped the CHP journalists. Journalists, who lost their hopes for power, were worried about what would happen if they lost Istanbul, too. While the politicians are fighting among themselves, journalists close to the CHP are more concerned about the loss of Istanbul.

The AK Party conducted a significant opposition in Istanbul, both through Osman Nuri Kabaktepe, the party's Istanbul provincial chairpersonship, and Tevfik Göksu, acting chair of the party’s group in the Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality (IBB) Assembly. People living in Istanbul now know that Imamoğlu is an unsuccessful mayor, with the impact of such a consistent opposition campaign. And I think the CHP will experience a second trauma in the local elections.