The ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party) experienced a loss in Istanbul during the preceding local election. The loss of Istanbul held significant implications for the AK Party, carrying various profound meanings.

First of all, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan commenced his political journey in Istanbul. Before starting university studies, he engaged in debates and competitions within the National Turkish Students Union (MTTB) during high school. Throughout his high school tenure, Erdoğan assumed a leadership role as a student and pursued his university education while concurrently working to earn a living.

He started his political life in his 20s as the president of the youth branch of the National Salvation Party (MSP). His political career was predominantly shaped in the Beyoğlu district of Istanbul.

In fact, since the journey of the AK Party is, in a way, the journey of Erdoğan, I would like to go a little deeper into how Erdoğan became the mayor of Istanbul.

Industrialization, development

The Welfare Party (RP) represented more of the Islamism component of the three political styles that became evident during the Ottoman period: Ottomanism, Islamism and Turkism. Interestingly, although it was Islamic in discourse, due to the professional formation of the late RP leader Necmettin Erbakan as a mechanical engineer and mathematician, industrialization and development were central pillars of the party policy in addition to Islamic ideology.

Despite possessing common sense, the RP exhibited an introverted structure and displayed limited receptivity to the cosmopolitan culture of the Anatolian provinces.

The fact that Erdoğan was born and raised in Beyoğlu led him to assimilate its cosmopolitan culture. In other words, not only did he live together with members of different thoughts, ideas and lifestyles in Türkiye, but he also gained the experience of living together with Jews, Christians and other non-Muslim elements.

In 1994, by also taking advantage of the fragmented structure of politics, the RP won Istanbul, and Erdoğan became Istanbul's mayor.

From mayorship to prime minister

During his tenure, Erdoğan assumed control of Istanbul, which was poorly managed, almost ungovernable, financially strained, plagued by polluted air and faced shortages in drinking water.

He initiated a transformative process, turning the city into a well-managed, modern and cosmopolitan one with significant infrastructure and massive investment in contemporary facilities, starting with transportation.

He paved the way to become the prime minister in the general elections in Türkiye by achieving success in scientific works, politics and culture in Istanbul. Erdoğan has been governing Türkiye since then for over 20 years with the knowledge and experience he has acquired.

The loss of Istanbul, which is the key to politics and the starting point of everything for the RP, later the AK Party and Erdoğan, naturally caused deep wounds within the AK Party.

Today, the AK Party collectively is more motivated and more focused on winning the election in the upcoming elections.

From victory to failure

Current Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoğlu, the sole political figure of the main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP), achieved electoral success in the recent local elections. However, his performance in serving Istanbul after his victory has been perceived as "notably limited," politely speaking.

Imamoğlu failed to implement any precautions against the anticipated earthquake that is likely to occur in Istanbul. No new infrastructure improvements were assumed during his administration, such as transportation or potable water.

While the AK Party is trying hard to regain the Istanbul it lost, together with the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) and its other allies, the former members of the National Alliance, the Good Party (IP) and the CHP, are locked in a fierce fight with one another.

The strategy of Imamoğlu to win is based on party loyalty to the CHP, sectarian adversary to the AK Party, or citing some concerns on lifestyle.

The AK Party claims to complete Istanbul's unfinished works and to govern Istanbul better by emphasizing its past investments, 25 years of service and achievements in Istanbul.

By saying "Istanbul anew" before launching the campaign across Türkiye, President Erdoğan tries to emphasize the importance of Istanbul in these elections in a way. The upcoming local elections will hinge a bit on the Istanbul debate.

The CHP has officially announced its candidate: the incumbent mayor of Istanbul. As of now, the AK Party has yet to decide on its candidate. In Türkiye, the election often ushers in a festive atmosphere.

It appears after the announcement of a candidate by the AK Party, a heated political contest is on the horizon for Istanbul, a city that the AK Party is determined to reclaim.

Based on the available research data, Imamoglu does not appear to be a highly successful mayor, and he relies on the partisan support of the CHP.

The position of the pro-PKK Green Left Party (YSP), informally known as the Peoples' Equality and Democracy Party (DEM Party), a successor of the Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP), is unclear.

However, the IP has already declared to field a candidate against the CHP's nominee.

According to the available rational data, the prevailing tendency suggests the AK Party is more likely to secure a victory.