The Justice and Development Party (AK Party) has been running the country for the past two decades and still appears to be the most popular party with 40%-41% of the votes, according to our research based on "if there were an election today." It has almost double the vote potential of the main opposition party.

The Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), the second partner of the People's Alliance led by the AK Party, has around 7%-8% of the votes. But there seems to be a chance for the MHP to increase its stake as the Good Party (IP), which broke away from MHP, fell from around 12% to 7%. The MHP might attract some of the votes that left the IP.

Meanwhile, the opposition bloc, the Nation Alliance, also known as the "table for six," is heading toward a seven-party coalition, with the support of the four parties at the "table" with small stakes, plus the main opposition party, the Republican People's Party (CHP), the IP and the pro-PKK Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP).

Once, Süleyman Demirel, a former prime minister and president, said: "One can't cook a pie out of 40 sparrows." Currently, the opposition parties are trying to do just that.

Direct support of terrorists

While the political rivalry in Türkiye continues between the People's Alliance and the Nation Alliance, interestingly, two terrorist organizations in the international arena have made their choices clear.

The first group, the PKK, which has been carrying out terrorist activities on separatism in Türkiye for 40 years, has caused the death of 50,000 of our citizens. Although the HDP is a political extension of the PKK, the members of the terrorist organization rarely issue direct messages of support. One can read the message of the PKK representatives in two ways. First, they intend to intimidate the people by threatening them directly. Secondly, the terrorist organization is trying to show who the boss is, that they can determine the stance and the position of the HDP and that their allies should address the terrorist organization directly rather than through the HDP.

Of course, we do not know what exactly crossed through their collective subconscious. But for the first time in an election, the terror barons and terrorist organizations have openly revealed themselves and clearly state that they support the Nation Alliance.

The second problematic group is the Gülenist Terror Group (FETÖ), which was caught red-handed in the attempted coup in Türkiye, bombed Parliament, killed thousands of people and infiltrated the state. Its members were later tried and imprisoned for the most part, though some of its leaders still live abroad.

There is political competition in Türkiye. There are ruling parties. There are opposition parties. Interestingly, at the same time, two terrorist organizations directly support the opposition in Türkiye. It is new in Turkish politics.

If the ruling party did not provide stable security in the country, terrorist organizations would be content with it. That means that Türkiye's power and security strategy made it impossible for terrorists to live within the country. For this reason, terrorist organizations are longing for the days of unrest to return to Türkiye.

U.S. on stage for 'table'

Interestingly, a new actor joined the Turkish political theater. Bob Menendez, the chairperson of the United States Senate Foreign Relations Committee, supports the opposition with his speeches. While distorting the facts to prevent the sale of military equipment to Türkiye, including F-16s, the senator openly encourages the opposition bloc to resist and continue the struggle.

Menendez blames incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan for the S-400 crisis, ignoring Türkiye's dilemma at the time and portraying the situation as if Ankara bought NATO weapons because it preferred Russia for air defense. In the Armenia-Karabakh war, while all Western states positioned themselves on the side of Armenia, Türkiye's support for the just struggle of Azerbaijan was reflected by the American committee chairperson as the massacre of the innocent Armenian people.

The chair of the U.S. Senate's Foreign Relations Committee distorts the truth, including on the Cyprus question and the Eastern Mediterranean issues. He describes our troops on the island deployed to protect our compatriots in Cyprus from the Greek massacre as an "occupation army" in a European country. He is trying to portray Türkiye, exploring hydro-carbons in its exclusive economic zone in the Mediterranean, as an intrusive country operating in someone else's economic zone.

Friends and foes

Menendez clearly states that it is not in the interests of the U.S. for Erdoğan's AK Party to stay in power, putting the interests of his country for his security in Syria ahead of American policies and expanding its influence in Libya and the Caucasus.

Sweden and Finland signed a three-party understanding with Türkiye following their application for NATO membership, and Finland distanced itself from terrorism. Türkiye approved Finland's membership and enabled it to join NATO but continued to resist the acceptance of Swedish until they cut the ties with terrorists, as they committed to do in writing. Mendenez earlier claimed, before Finland's entry, that Türkiye was hindering the expansion of NATO. This false claim was exposed, but, in general, confronting a Türkiye that defends its national preferences within NATO disturbs the mentality represented by Mendenez.

The problem is not only about military equipment sales but also Türkiye's expansion of influence in foreign policy. Those who see the whole world as their exclusive zone of economic occupation cannot digest Türkiye's protection of its economic rights and interests.

As many opinion leaders have stated, Türkiye's election has become the most critical globally. It is momentous for keeping Türkiye's friends and foes aligned with their allies. Anatolian people are prudent, ingenious and cautious. They have political experience spanning a thousand years. The Turkish people will make their choice and find the right path.