For the past week, Türkiye’s agenda has been dominated by the arrest of Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality (IBB) Mayor Ekrem Imamoğlu as part of a corruption investigation. Sent to prison on serious charges such as bribery, bid rigging and corruption, Imamoğlu has placed the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) in a difficult test both internally and externally.

CHP Chairperson Özgür Özel described the accusations against Imamoğlu as a "political case” and called on party members to gather in front of the IBB headquarters. During the ongoing protests, Özel used expressions like "Tear it down and move on,” encouraging demonstrators. The party has also been in the spotlight for controversial moves such as launching a boycott campaign against Turkish brands and products. However, these actions seem to have raised doubts among CHP’s nationalist voter base.

In the early days of the incident, Özel’s claim of a "political conspiracy” found some support within the party. However, as time passed, the details of the allegations against Imamoğlu have been increasingly debated in public. The fact that the prosecution launched the investigation based on witness testimonies and complaints from within the CHP has added weight to the accusations. This has led many to interpret Imamoğlu’s move to declare himself a presidential candidate three years before the general elections as an attempt to seek "judicial protection.”

Breaking free from tutelage

Imamoğlu’s arrest marks a turning point for the CHP leadership. Özel sees the extraordinary congress planned for April 6 as an opportunity. Having recently overthrown former CHP Chairperson Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu with Imamoğlu’s financial and moral support, Özel now aims to consolidate his leadership and bring intraparty opposition under control. He wants to shed his image as a "caretaker” and become the true "boss.” He is trying to step out of Imamoğlu’s shadow. At the same time, by keeping the issue on the agenda while Imamoğlu is in prison, he indirectly attempts to maintain his influence.

However, Özel’s tactics have not received homogeneous support within the party. Encouraging clashes with the police during protests and complaining about Türkiye to foreign media have disturbed CHP’s nationalist segments.

Alternative figures, party dynamics

There are also alternative figures emerging in a CHP landscape dominated by Imamoğlu and Özel.

Ankara Metropolitan Municipality Mayor Mansur Yavaş has gained prominence with his popularity surpassing Imamoğlu in polls and his "clean record” image. While he has expressed support for Imamoğlu, he has also maintained a cautious stance, saying, "Anyone can be prosecuted.” Yavaş’s approach could trigger a new leadership search within the party.

Meanwhile, Kılıçdaroğlu, who led the "Table of Six” alliance to success in the 2024 local elections, still holds a respected and influential position within the party. His role as a "wise elder” could be effective in brokering compromises between different factions.

What lies ahead for CHP?

With a 103-year history, the CHP has traditionally avoided direct confrontations with the state’s key institutions. Imamoğlu, who comes from a right-wing background, has reshaped the party in a short time with Istanbul’s financial resources, drawing reactions from some circles. The party’s powerful internal factions are unlikely to tolerate this dominance in the long run.

While the judiciary’s decision on Imamoğlu remains uncertain, several scenarios lie ahead for the CHP: Özel may consolidate his leadership, a new figure like Yavaş may rise, or the party may regain stability under Kılıçdaroğlu’s experience. However, the shadow of corruption allegations will continue to test both the party’s internal dynamics and its credibility in the eyes of the public.