When the Russia-Ukraine war first broke out, it was not difficult to predict that the global system, which recently survived and was tired from the coronavirus pandemic, would now be shaken by more shocks. The energy crisis was at the top of the list. At this point, against the Western embargoes, Russia took out the energy card it had held for a long time and imposed gas restrictions against many countries, especially Germany. Germany partially froze its decadeslong green energy policy in the face of the crisis and announced that it would reactivate coal-fired power plants. At the end of the day, green politics, which were made possible by investing billions of euros and making great political investments, was hit hard.
Another epicenter of the crisis in the markets is food. The global supply chain, which has been strained by the pandemic, is in trouble due to the grain trapped in Ukraine. It is necessary to underline an important point here, like every global crisis, this crisis also has real and artificial dimensions. U.N. officials constantly underline that there is enough food in the world for everyone, but there is inequality in distribution. This inequality is not new as whoever looks at the situation on the African continent can see. However, the new situation is that the size of inequality will increase as a result of regional and global crises. Just as developed countries engaged in vaccine nationalism during the pandemic period, the bells of food nationalism are ringing this time. With many developed countries stockpiling grain, the looming food crisis is likely to hit fragile countries the hardest.
One of the sticking points of this global crisis is the Ukraine war, as I have just mentioned. To distribute millions of tons of grain trapped in Ukrainian ports and silos – as it has been since the beginning of the crisis – Turkey has again taken action. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has been conducting shuttle diplomacy for a while to unload the grain. His efforts are closely followed by the whole world as he is perhaps the only leader who can maintain good relations with both Ukraine and Russia during the crisis.
While I was writing this article, there was an important meeting in Moscow. Military delegations headed by Turkish and Russian generals, assigned as part of the "red line" diplomacy, met in Moscow. It was reported to the lobby that the meeting was in a constructive and positive atmosphere. There is also an understanding about holding talks between Turkey, Russia, Ukraine and the U.N.
Turkey is in contact with U.N. officials in particular. Erdoğan's meeting with U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres this week should be evaluated in this context. On the food corridor issue, which was also discussed in Erdoğan's meeting with British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, statements from British officials show that London also supports Ankara's efforts.
For those who don't know, the main reason for the tightness of grain stocks is the sea mines laid by Ukraine in the Black Sea. Especially in order to reach Odessa's port, clearing the area of mines came to the fore. However, Ukraine objected to the plan, citing the continued Russian threat. The transportation blockade implemented by Russia is another factor that deepens the crisis.
Turkey has determined a plan for the evacuation of grain. It was this plan that was discussed at the meeting in Moscow. Accordingly, three safe corridors will be determined from the mined areas off Odessa for the safe exit of grains. The passage through the corridors will be under the control of Ukraine. Russia, on the other hand, will check to see if there will be weapons on board due to security concerns. Within the scope of the mechanism, it is expected that more than 35 million tons of grain and sunflower oil will reach the world through the straits within six-eight months.
Only a few hours after the meeting in Moscow ended, positive news began to arrive. A Turkish dry cargo ship, which has been waiting for days, left the Ukrainian port. The Turkish ship “Azov Concord” became the first foreign ship to leave the Ukrainian port of Mariupol, which is under the control of the Russian army and separatists.
The NATO leaders summit, which will take place in Madrid on June 28-30, will be an important forum to address all these problems. And it would not be wrong to say this: All eyes will be on Erdoğan and the Turkish delegation for the resolution of the crisis.
