As in the modern hip-hop urban legend of “ride or die,” attributed to mythical outlaw couple Bonnie and Clyde (remember, they rode and died!), a 77-year-old man facing 91 felony charges, five indictments, circled with political and media wolves, so far has managed to convince the second eldest political party (which, by the way, had emerged to combat slavery) to slavishly jump on his MAGA wagon. Allow me to jump to the conclusion of their ride: They both will reach their common political demise in 10 short months.
I am not going to defend the ideology Donald Trump molded the GOP into, nor the ideas that keep his MAGA camp together. But, as we say in Turkish, let’s sit crooked but talk straight, if you win an election with 7,000 more votes than your rival in a country where you have 160 million registered voters, people talk! Not 7,000, but a mere 70,000 difference between the winner and loser would make all the sane people stop and think for a second.
By the way, especially if your country is the one so infamous for rigging elections all over the world; history books attest to the fact that there have been manipulated domestic elections in the country, and Republican candidate Trump constantly warns his supporters that the elections in 2016 and 2020 could be “rigged.” His claims are made with no specific evidence and have been rebutted by everyone from then-President Barack Obama to a speaker of the House and experts like the commissioner of the federal Election Assistance Commission. His own vice president refuted Trump’s claim that he, not Joe Biden, won the 2020 election. Almost all the cast votes had been recounted twice; but the 70% of those who voted for Trump in the recent New Hampshire primary still believes that Trump, not Biden, won the 2020 elections.
That is probably the only reason that this 77-year-old man is dragging the political establishment of the United States. We have to give it to him: This is no small achievement for even a younger person. Trump, singlehandedly, kept the “hype up.” Well, actually not so “singlehandedly,” thanks to Democrats, from the president down to Maine’s top election official, Secretary of State Shenna Bellows, who had removed the former president from the state’s 2024 primary ballot and had later paused her decision pending a potential appeal in state court, Trump turned to be “the first and only former president to be criminally charged” and this is only serving to bolster his credentials.
There are not too many scientific laws in the political science theory, but one of the law-like statements is that a sitting president whose economic performance is strong enough to generate a 40% approval rate wins the upcoming elections if he chooses to run. The strong economic growth and falling unemployment should have kept any campaign float without any other political input from the party! But Biden’s own vice president, Kamala Harris, seems to be “scared as heck” that Trump could win!
The U.S. economy grew by a bustling 3.1% last year, fueled by spending and a strong labor market. Trump jumped the gun, saying the administration’s jobless numbers aren’t real. But they are; the White House’s economic performance is delivering gains to the average American. Still, it would be difficult to convince a skeptical public that feels pessimistic about the economy, especially after the pandemic’s upheaval. Although inflation has been somewhat calming, people are still coping with prices that are much higher than they were before the COVID-19 pandemic.
The Trump camp needs to disparage especially the unemployment figures since his major stake in the incoming elections seems to be in illegal immigration and unregistered migration. His Iowa and New Hampshire caucus and primary campaigns ran the theme that the Biden Administration has the country congested with illegal aliens and unregistered immigrants. It is true that the Biden administration has acted to reverse Trump-era restrictions on immigration, which boosted refugee admissions. Biden has also lifted restrictions put into effect during the coronavirus pandemic. Trump’s MAGA crowd provokes the fact that record numbers of migrants have been arrested at the southern border and the number of migrants released by the U.S. border patrol.
Apparently, Biden’s new immigration proposals would allow more new immigrants into the U.S. while also enabling millions of unauthorized immigrants to legal status. The new legislation would create an eight-year path to citizenship for the nation’s estimated 10.5 million unauthorized immigrants. While a record number of migrants await at the U.S.-Mexico border, Biden reinstated a Trump-era policy that requires those who arrive at the U.S.-Mexico border and seek asylum to wait in Mexico while their claims are being processed. With more than 35 million lawful immigrants, and roughly 1 million unauthorized immigrants with temporary permission to live and work in the U.S., Biden needs much better employment figures.
Now Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is out of his way and former South Carolina government Nikki Haley gets knocked down to size in her hometown after learning her lessons in Iowa and New Hampshire. She might have been the best alternative to two-80-year-old men if she had not tried to be “more Trump than Trump” and “more Zionist than Netanyahu.” Alas!
The New Hampshire primary, like the Iowa caucuses, has been a bad experience, with no real challenge on either side. Trump won both, but his weaknesses with regular conservatives and those 7,000 voters who put Biden in the presidential seat, last time are obvious. No Democrat can win with the Democratic votes only; nor a Republican with the Republican votes only. You always need crossover voters to win. Trump had no non-MAGA votes in New Hampshire. Neither in the general election will he have anyone scared by the illegal immigrants nor their competition in the job market. NH primary voters pronounced that regular Republicans Independents are not going to risk yet another Jan. 6 Riot at their beloved Capitol.
If the political history of the U.S. is teaching us one and only one thing, the regular Democrat, Republican, and Independent American, unlike the MAGA minions of Trump, would stay home on election day if there were no need to be frustrated about the economy. You can write this as the second law-like generalization in political science.
Perhaps, although it is not a strong argument like the first two, I mentioned here, there is another historical piece of information in the story of Ms. Bonnie Elizabeth Parker and Mr. Clyde Chestnut "Champion" Barrow for the GOP: Be aware of the person who is offering you a free ride.
