The total trade volume between Asia and Europe reached $1.85 trillion (TL 59.54 trillion) in 2023. According to the international transportation and logistics institutions' calculations, the annual capacity for container transportation between the two continents alone has reached 16.6 million TEU (twenty-foot equivalent units). While the total world trade volume was 784 million TEU in 2018, this figure increased to 866 million TEU in 2022. A $25 trillion global trade in goods indicates a transportation capacity of 866 million TEU. Essentially, the Asia-Europe trade volume accounts for a small share of global trade.
Global trade, which currently accounts for 25% of global gross domestic product (GDP), is expected to reach 30% to 33% by 2050. Given predictions that global GDP will be $225 trillion to $230 trillion by then, this implies a global trade volume between $65 trillion to $75 trillion, depending on the trajectory of global trade over the next 25 years. This translates to container transportation and logistics ranging from 1.875 billion TEU to 2.165 billion TEU. The picture is very clear: It is not feasible to handle such a massive volume with the existing traditional land (highway and railway), sea and air trade corridors.
No matter how much global and regional geopolitical tensions calm down or the effects of the global climate crisis slow, neither the Suez Canal, the Panama Canal, nor any traditional trade route can bear such an increasing burden. Therefore, new routes must be added alongside traditional trade and transportation corridors. The "corridor wars" seem to be escalating at this point. The intensifying competition between power centers seeking control over trade corridors is prioritizing efforts to create new routes through intercontinental corridors that each power center is trying to emphasize.
However, the anticipated growth in global trade suggests a volume too vast for any single power center to control. The future points to a need for diverse alternative routes within the sea-land connections of trade corridors between Asia and Europe. The expected scale of intercontinental trade indicates that all alternative corridors will easily claim a share of global trade. This process, set to accelerate after 2035, will play out over the next decade, showing that competition, which may occasionally become intense, is ultimately unnecessary. By 2040-2050, we will see a global trade landscape where everyone gets their share and is satisfied with it.
However, until this fundamental truth is accepted, the escalating competition between traditional and new-generation trade corridors over the next 10 years will heighten the pressure on geopolitical fault lines. The world's economic and political power centers will likely manage their maneuvers for dominance over these trade corridors by increasing tensions along these fault lines. Türkiye possesses significant advantages, opportunities, and capabilities in every corridor extending from Central Asia and South Asia to the Middle East, North Africa and the Balkans.
Efforts by some countries to exclude Türkiye from the equation are destined to fail, as it is unlikely that many countries will achieve the capacities and capabilities that Türkiye currently holds and will continue to develop. Therefore, it is in the best interest of these countries to focus on cooperation based on the "win-win principle," rather than engaging in futile pursuits.
