The recent crisis in Ukraine has revealed some of Europe's critical vulnerabilities. Unlike Russia, Europe was militarily, economically and mentally unprepared for a military confrontation. Many Europeans did not expect Russian military ambitions to affect the Donbass region. They miscalculated and overlooked all the signals sent by Russian President Vladimir Putin before the Russian military campaign. The ongoing war will have a long-lasting impact on the entire continent, especially in the neighboring Eastern European and Baltic states. Many Europeans have their fingers crossed for a quick end to the ongoing war, though it will create even more panic if it continues longer. The European mindset is not ready for a prolonged military confrontation with Russia, which gives Putin an advantage.
The only weapon the European countries have at the moment is a heavy list of economic and political sanctions against Russia. They already deployed many of the sanctions and have now come to a standstill on a decision regarding energy imports from Russia. European allies exhibited an exceptional level of solidarity against Russian aggression. However, Europeans could not risk placing a ban on gas and oil exports from Russia because they lacked backup plans to fill the supply gap in a short period of time. Meanwhile, military measures are developing at a much slower pace. Differences in opinion and strategy will become more visible as the European leaders continue to talk about more concrete military issues.
Countries bordering Ukraine are now facing a severe refugee problem. Millions of Ukrainian women and children are now in Europe. As the war continues and causes more destruction to civilian infrastructure, the number of refugees will surge as well. Bombing civilian infrastructure and using refugees as a pressure tool is another Russian strategy that we have seen in Syria. Turkey accommodated millions of Syrian refugees and served as a barrier for Europe for more than a decade. The Europeans always underappreciated Turkey’s efforts, but now they are facing refugee pressure more directly on their border. Europe has sufficient funds and resources to accommodate millions of Ukrainian refugees, but this will be a costly process.
The Russian military might is felt more closely in Eastern Europe, and the only protection shield that the European countries have is NATO. For decades Europeans managed to keep the war outside of their territories. The Balkan conflicts of the 1990s had devastating consequences for the former states of Yugoslavia, but those conflicts did not breach the territories of the EU member countries. The “global war on terror” or the post 9/11 terrorist attacks targeted some European capitals, but the terrorism threat did not necessitate a broader military mobilization. European countries did not need to expand their military expenditures despite the warnings of Washington. Some European countries may even consider conscription for combat readiness. This will generate new domestic political debates in many countries.
In the early phase of the conflict in Europe, the trans-Atlantic partners demonstrated an unexpected level of solidarity. All European countries condemned the Russian invasion of Ukraine. They participated in the long list of sanctions against Russia. Many Western companies and financial institutions suspended their activities in Russia. Moscow was not expecting such a high level of consensus for the sanctions. War on the borders of Europe will have a transformative impact and will change the behavior of many states.
For decades the European Union project expanded the peace and prosperity in the old continent. The EU became one of the most successful projects that brought wealth and peace to the continent that was tired of wars and conflicts for centuries. The Cold War never developed into a real fight and NATO provided a solid security shield to Western Europe. Europeans prospered and managed to establish institutions of cooperation along with the norms of democracy, the rule of law, market economies and human rights. The success of the EU project appealed to many other countries, including the former Warsaw Pact countries. Joint values, institutions, economic opportunities and resources were the real secret behind the EU project. Still, we should not forget the U.S.' contributions and military investment in the continent. Without America taking the helm of Europe's defense, the continent could have become fragmented and weaker.
European actors will choose to maintain economic relations, especially the trade of energy resources and food with Russia. Suspending such trade would boost the overall cost of the European energy budget and they will have to pay more for food. If they continue free trade with Russia, they may face a strengthened military threat in the future. Europe will have severe problems in supply chains, which countries will need to diversify in critical areas. It will take some time to substitute Russia, especially in terms of crude oil, natural gas, coal chemicals, other raw materials and some agricultural products. High inflation and rising energy and food prices will be a natural outcome of the current crisis. We have already seen a shortage of cooking oil and grains in some European countries. This will probably be a temporary shortage, but it is likely to increase the cost of consumer goods.
More importantly, the Europeans will need to increase their military expenditures and will have to allocate more resources to accommodate Ukrainian refugees. Germany already declared plans to allocate $113 billion to defense spending, which other EU member countries will probably follow. The budgetary decisions will generate tense debates within the parliaments of EU member countries. Some of the resources planned for the green transition will be spent on defense budgets. A more muscular foreign policy will also tone down the liberal voices in decision-making in joint defense and foreign policy areas. There will also be a more skeptical approach toward China in the medium term.
Europe is now moving into a new era in which it will have to deal with new conventional security challenges, which used to be avoided or handled much more quickly in the past. Defense and security will now become an urgent priority. Responding to the military threats solely with economic and political sanctions will be dysfunctional. European countries will need to allocate more resources for military spending to increase their deterrence potential. More importantly, they need to build stronger defense cooperation with the countries outside of Europe. Besides Europe, the U.S., Canada, New Zealand, Australia and a few other Asian countries, the world was unwilling to sanction Russia. This will weaken the impact of Western sanctions and pressures as well. It is crucial for Europeans to think in a more visionary approach and to rebuild trust and strategic ties with the actors outside of their continent.
