This week witnessed a significant trajectory in bilateral relations between Türkiye and Iraq, two neighbors and peoples that are historically strongly attached to each other at many levels despite modern boundaries and contemporary obstacles.
President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan paid an official visit to the Iraqi capital Baghdad and Irbil, the capital of Iraq’s semi-autonomous Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), on Monday with a large delegation and several important dossiers on his agenda. In both Baghdad and Irbil, Erdoğan was received by a warm welcome that extended beyond high-level officials, including the personal welcome by Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed S. Al Sudani and KRG President Nechirvan Barzani. In fact, a people’s welcome was very visible in the imagery coming from Iraq where the locals had decorated their buildings with Turkish and Iraqi flags and the Turkish flag that was reflected on the Irbil Citadel.
Of course, Erdoğan’s visit was not the first step coming from Ankara toward a comprehensive approach to strengthening cooperation with Baghdad as Turkish officials including Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, National Defense Minister Yaşar Güler and National Intelligence Organization chief Ibrahim Kalın have conducted a long series of meetings for nearly year.
During Erdoğan’s visit, Turkish and Iraqi officials inked 24 memorandums of understanding (MoU), covering a large array of issues. Several areas, however, have come to the fore on the agenda, and they will require a continuation of political willingness from both sides to ensure they are realized. These are the common cooperation against the threat of terrorism of all kinds, particularly the joint fight against the PKK, materializing the quadrilateral preliminary agreement – signed by Türkiye, Iraq, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) – for the Development Road project, and solving energy and water-related disputes.
First, it is a known fact that both Iraq and Türkiye have long suffered from terrorist activities within their borders, including the PKK, Daesh and other extremist groups. The U.S. invasion of Iraq made the country a fertile ground for many terrorist groups and the presence of strong foreign influence with the absence of a strong and stable political environment. In fact, despite officials in Baghdad voicing their opposition to the PKK, the lack of sustainability in governance has led to failures in coming to a common understanding between Ankara and Baghdad on how to tackle terrorism. Türkiye’s four-decade fight against the PKK and other recent terrorist groups has seen success within its borders and enabled it to target threats elsewhere, namely in northern Syria and northern Iraq. The PKK terrorist group in northern Iraq and operating under the acronym YPG in northern Syria has been a direct threat to the sovereignty of Türkiye and the security of Turkish citizens.
Meanwhile, it should be noted that the group also targets the sovereignty of Iraq and Syria. In other words, the presence of the PKK in northern Iraq and in northern Syria as the YPG, which is supported by the U.S., is among the leading causes of instability in the region. Thus why, with the relative presence of political will to tackle the PKK threat jointly, if sustained in the long-term, will not only eliminate the PKK as a threat to Iraq’s and Türkiye’s security but will also pave the way for other areas of cooperation that would aid prosperity in the region.
Second, during Erdoğan’s visit, which comes after a 13-year pause at the presidential level, a preliminary agreement was signed on the Development Road project that is expected to significantly contribute to regional connectivity through the 1,200-kilometer (745-mile) road and rail corridor. The $17 billion project will act as a link between Iraq’s Grand Faw Port, in the country’s south, and Türkiye. In other words, it will act as a new alternative for transportation and trade between Asia and Europe. The deal for the project comes at a time when the significance of having alternative trade and transportation routes for global supply chains and the movement of goods comes to the focus of the international community.
The COVID-19 pandemic, the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the recent tensions in the Middle East that disrupted the Red Sea route have necessitated alternatives for sustainability and avoiding disruptions. As such, the route will not only become an alternative to existing trade routes, but it will also elevate both Iraq’s and Türkiye’s regional and international leverage in trade and transportation by making them more appealing to foreign investors. Bilateral trade between Iraq and Türkiye, which sits around $20 billion at the moment, is expected to be positively impacted by the new route. Moreover, it will increase both the quadrilateral parties' political influence on regional dynamics in a more cooperative and positive way that would serve regional stability. The project will also enhance both Iraq’s and Türkiye’s position as transit hubs vis-a-vis other planned projects, including China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC).
Here, it is important to note that how the U.S. and Iran will react to the fight against the PKK and the Development Road project will be closely followed, as they are game-changing moves on economic and political dynamics in Iraq and regionally at large. Iran’s attempts to influence Iraqi politics through sectarian motives are particularly important in this context and at a time when Iran is influential particularly over Suleymaniyah and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) politics.
Lastly, the new approach to ties will help facilitate a positive common ground in tackling the recent dispute over the transfer of Iraqi oil to markets via Türkiye and the decadeslong dispute over water resources. The Iraq-Türkiye oil pipeline, which once handled about 0.5% of the global oil supply, has not been active for more than a year over reciprocal claims and moves, including taking the case to the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC). A ruling has been made by the ICC, yet all involved sides, Ankara, Baghdad and Irbil, are aware of the political roots of the problem. Nevertheless, the present positive atmosphere is expected to contribute to finding a solution to this issue. In addition, the political will is expected to enable technical discussions and cooperation on water-related issues between the two neighbors over the transboundary water resources of both the Euphrates and Tigris rivers, where Iraq asks Türkiye to increase the volume of water downstream along the two rivers and has at times accused Ankara of limiting water flow.
Ankara says it allows the water flow but the problem is related to water resources and technical management of water in Iraq. Following the visit to Iraq, Erdoğan said: “We have to draft new plans, new programs compatible with changing climate conditions and ensure sustainable use of water. Bear in mind that Türkiye needs water as much as Iraq. We are not a water-rich country and as a matter of fact, are among countries with water stress. Unless we create new plans soon, we can be challenged in terms of obtaining water. We need careful steps.” Türkiye proposes to tackle the water issue technically and not make the issue a matter of political disagreement.
“We have to launch joint projects based on a constructive approach. Water is not a matter of conflict, it is a matter that will serve our joint interests through cooperation,” Erdoğan had added.
All these issues are not small disagreements or matters to tackle and they require long-term political will to solve. It should be noted that not all issues will be solved and some may be solved partly. Yet, having a common positive political will must be present as a first step. This positive approach seems to be present and the political will is there. Now, commitment is the required ingredient to realize the plans that would not only contribute to Iraq and Türkiye and their bilateral ties, but they are also going to have regional positive implications for the prosperity and security of the people of the region.
