Last week, I concluded my article by saying the Turkish opposition bloc and Western media will again be defeated in this election.

I also said, "The voters, whose will has been underestimated and disrespected, will bury them all at the ballot box. So wait and see in my next article after the elections, farewell."

That day has come. Türkiye has left behind May 14, described by the international press as "the most important election of 2023."

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan-led People’s Alliance secured a majority in Parliament with 323 deputies. On the other hand, the Nation Alliance, led by the Republican People’s Party (CHP) Chairperson, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, will be represented in Parliament with 211 deputies. In the presidential elections, while Erdoğan reached 49.5%, the joint candidate of the opposition bloc, Kılıçdaroğlu, remained at 44.8%. The third candidate, Sinan Oğan, received around 5% of the votes.

The definite result of the presidential elections will be determined in the second round on May 28, where the two candidates with the highest votes will compete, and the one surpassing 50%+1 will win.

The elections, with a participation rate exceeding 85%, are also expected to witness a high turnout in the second round. The favorite in the race is considered to be Erdoğan, who narrowly missed the 50% threshold by a tiny margin of 0.5% in the first round.

Since Erdoğan has been in power for 21 years and is very close to remaining in power for the next five years, this achievement will be remembered in the world’s political literature. I cannot think of another example besides Germany’s "eternal chancellor" Angela Merkel, who retired after holding office for 17 years through elections, that comes close to him.

Of course, the significant contribution of Kılıçdaroğlu, Erdoğan’s main rival, cannot be denied in this huge success. Kılıçdaroğlu, despite losing the election 11 times, has still been nominated as the joint candidate of the opposition, which is a notable achievement in the world of political literature, and according to predictions, it seems that his 12th defeat is imminent.

Disappointment of opposition

Naturally, there is a massive disappointment among opposition voters. They were misled by the opposition circles, media, politicians and pollsters. They were manipulated with unsupported claims that Kılıçdaroğlu would win with 60% of the votes. They were made to believe they would win this time.

However, they realized through the actual poll results, the ballot boxes, that all the calculations were wrong. So Kılıçdaroğlu, who boasts of being a calculation expert, distributed shares from the parliamentary candidate lists through alliances with four parties. Still, none of those parties received any votes at the ballot box. Instead, the CHP received the same votes as in the previous election. In return, CHP gifted 38 Parliament members to these four fringe parties that its voters despise as "political religionists." And many more rookie mistakes, errors, and wrong choices...

After the election defeat, Kılıçdaroğlu first "took the heads" of his party’s information and communication officers. He will continue with purges to avoid being targeted by criticism.

Sharp maneuvers and resignations are also taking place in the opposition media circles. Quick schemes and concessions are also taking place in the opposition-leaning processes. Some self-criticize for misleading their readers and journalists who have become disillusioned, resentful and quit their column writing.

Second round

Now, can the situation change in the second round?

Opposition voters, who have been exhausted by tolerating disgraceful acts like the "sex tape blackmail" against the Homeland Party (MP) Chair Muharrem Ince, who ran as a candidate before his withdrawal and was accused of splitting Kılıçdaroğlu’s votes, are fed up.

Despite trying every "below-the-belt method," the disillusioned voters find it challenging to regain the motivation to return to the ballot box without achieving victory.

The possibility of Oğan, who holds radical nationalist views such as filling buses with all refugees in the country and deporting them, declaring support for Kılıçdaroğlu, does not change the outcome.

This is because it is unknown how Oğan’s radical nationalist base will respond to a call for unity against Erdoğan, alongside Kurdish separatists, around a common candidate. Most likely, Oğan’s votes will be distributed in equal proportions between Erdoğan and Kılıçdaroğlu.

Hence, it would not surprise anyone if the voters, tired of the election agenda and seeking stability, pushed Erdoğan’s votes to record levels in the second round.