As Russia currently invades Ukraine, many experts in international relations and security speculate it is the resumption of the Cold War or "the return of the Russian Empire." Most of these experts strive to make sense of the present situation and assess the impact of this invasion on international politics. For my part, I would like to draw attention to the despair of the European powers in the face of an aggressive Russia, which is directly related to the decline of their influence in international politics.
When the Syrian civil war erupted, not only the United States but also Russia, Turkey and Iran took center stage as key players in the Syrian crisis. Former U.S. President Barack Obama’s passive and hesitant policies, marked by his inability to act against Bashar Assad’s use of chemical weapons, accelerated Russia’s grandiose turning back to the world stage after the end of the Cold War. Realizing the waning effectiveness of the deterring influence of the U.S., Russia proved its worth as a military superpower in the Syrian crisis.
Like Russia, Turkey and Iran actively participated in the Syrian crisis, while the European powers remained in the background. As I emphasized several times in my previous columns, the leading European powers had but little influence in the international crises in the Eastern Mediterranean, Libya, the Caucasus, Georgia and the Middle East.
The decline of the European influence in international politics began after World War II, which concluded with the Cold War and a bipolar balance of power based on the global rivalry between the U.S. and Russia. During the Cold War, the U.S.-led NATO succeeded to resolve international crises thanks to the nuclear balance of power between the two rival pacts.
After the end of the Cold War, the U.S. created a short-lived unipolar international order, allowing it to invade Afghanistan and Iraq with impunity, rendering the role of the United Nations and international law in conflict resolution null and void. However, after the Syrian crisis erupted, a multipolar balance of power emerged due to the advent of new global and regional players, most notably China as an economic superpower and Russia as a military superpower.
As the Russian army aims to seize Ukraine, one of the most significant allies of the West in Eastern Europe, the European powers have come face to face with a major security threat. Unfortunately, neither the U.S. nor NATO took any drastic measures to deter Russia from invading Ukraine. Interpreting this attitude as a sign of weakness, Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered a full-fledged invasion of Ukraine.
The hesitancy of the U.S., when combined with the decline of the European powers in international politics, allowed Russia to conduct unprecedented military maneuvers first in the Caucasus and Syria, and then in Eastern Europe to preserve or overthrow political regimes and to annex land.
Now the question looms: Who will stop the Russian expansion in politically unstable eastern Europe? Without a doubt, NATO's leading members are responsible for the emergence of a significant threat against Europe.
