The upcoming presidential and general elections in Türkiye have almost become a global issue.
Every day an article about Türkiye appears in the world's leading magazines in Germany, the United Kingdom or the United States, among others. One publication talks about how the elections in Türkiye will be, another comes out and mentions bloody scenarios, and yet another one states that the general election is the most important one of the year in the world.
For many years, the Western world, which had established a colonial empire, was comfortable with the states in the Islamic world. The West could easily manage all of them, either directly or indirectly at one time. However, Britain and France lost most of their colonies in World War II.
The U.S. took over the watch and has been ruling the world for nearly 70 years. The West stages a coup in a country when appropriate, changes the administration when it deems it necessary or intervenes in politics when it thinks they have gone awry. Whenever the Western states want to, they can describe the world's most cruel dictator as a democrat and vice versa might label a libertarian democratic, and lawful one who comes to power in elections as a dictator. Accordingly, it was a globally dominant opinion until very recently that the West had an involvement in all political developments in the world.
When Joe Biden was running for the U.S. presidency, in an interview with the editors of The New York Times, he clearly stated that President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan had to pay the price and that Washington should embolden Turkish opposition leaders “to be able to take on and defeat Erdoğan. Not by a coup, but by the electoral process.” By saying so, Biden was sending a message to the Armenian American voters and announcing the "good news" for the Turkish people, as if it was a favor to pick democratic methods rather than a coup.
Opposition parties were probably pleased by Biden's promise and were very hopeful. However, the opposition parties in Türkiye seemed unaware that the United States no longer had the power to operate and change administrations like before. Also, Türkiye is no longer like the states under U.S. influence 30 years ago. Türkiye has turned into a regional power that reveals its own will and shapes its region, from Azerbaijan to Libya, and is perfectly capable of defending itself.
The U.S. is likely aware of its position and situation in the world. It could not afford the change of government in Venezuela, which was right under its nose.
Years ago, I wrote an article when the ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party) and the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) came together for an alliance. I evaluated the alliance of the MHP and the AK Party under three main headings: resistance to the spherical readout, ending the tutelage in Türkiye permanently and not allowing it to come back, and the fusion of the state and the nation.
President Erdoğan has been leading Türkiye for 20 years. Step by step, he improved Türkiye's economy first, then the infrastructure of the cities, and then the health and security infrastructures. Today, Türkiye is no longer a country that bows down to the West, listens to their orders, and is under their command. It has become a regional power that has completed its development.
The United States, a foreign country located far away from Türkiye, or other Westerners might not understand the capacity Türkiye has built over the years. It is normal. What is not normal, the problematic side of politics is that the members of the "table for six" who came together against Erdoğan, who live and do politics in Türkiye, cannot grasp Türkiye's capacity. While the Westerners keep their hopes through our opposition bloc, the members of the table have lost their hopes for public trust. The members of the opposition bloc don’t hesitate to declare that they hope for bravo from the West instead.
It seems that neither side has much credit to give to the other.
Since the "table for six" was set, it has been so messy, unpolitical and contentless that every day we face either an argument between two political parties or an internal fight within the bloc.
Members of the "table for six" who thought a year ago that they had unequivocally won the election believed that Turkish people would overthrow Erdoğan. For nearly a year, instead of developing an argument to win the election, they had internal discussions about how to run Türkiye as if they had already won the election.
On the other hand, President Erdoğan has become an election-winning expert and has prepared a set of policies. He knows more about how to win elections since he is already running the country and has seen success.
Now is the time to ask the big question. Will global powers support this messy table and opposition that have been unable to announce a candidate for a year, create a set of policies, create excitement in the Turkish people and cause more concern than confidence about how they will rule the country?
Although the Western states have invested in training the colonial intellectuals and the former ruling elite in Türkiye, step by step, people believe in their nation's power more and more, and Anatolia has already realized the unfairness of the colonialists. This election will take place on two main axes. One of them is Türkiye, which charts its route, is rational, works with its allies, maintains its position as an independent variable despite being in NATO, is the counterbalance between Russia and the West in the Ukraine-Russia war, and implements a balanced and fair policy.
The other axis is the opposition bloc, which is against Türkiye, whose influence is increasing in the Caucasus on the one hand, the Mediterranean on the other, the Middle East, and the whole world. The opposition aims to return Türkiye to its old settings. It is a political line that cannot show a will and is totally under the influence of the West in the economy, foreign policy, and defense, like the pacified Asian or Gulf politics, because of having lived as a colony for many years.
I think that the anxiety of the global powers is increasing regarding how to manage the opposition bloc in Türkiye and its disorganized political structure. In my opinion, the global powers will not be able to manage this mess.
