The political crisis unfolding in Germany comes at a precarious moment for Europe, one likely to intensify under a potential second Trump era. Germany, a traditional pillar of European stability, now faces unprecedented internal fragmentation, a challenge that, if unresolved, could weaken the EU at a time when unity is essential to confront global shifts and economic uncertainties.

Yesterday at the Berlin Foreign Policy Forum, I saw firsthand the tensions within Germany’s fractured coalition. The Free Democratic Party (FDP) general secretary argued that Germany’s fiscal challenges stem from excessive spending rather than limited income, reflecting the FDP’s commitment to austerity and fiscal conservatism. However, this approach stands in contrast to Germany’s other coalition partners. While the FDP advocates for a leaner government, the Social Democrats (SPD) and Greens support increased public spending to stimulate Germany’s economy. This ideological rift – whether Germany’s issue is overspending or underinvestment – has been a major point of contention within the coalition.

With the FDP’s exit, Germany now faces the prospect of a minority government led by Chancellor Olaf Scholz, an unfamiliar scenario for a nation known for its consensus-driven politics. Scholz, isolated and constrained, would likely struggle to enact significant reforms or project Germany’s traditional influence abroad.

Meanwhile, the U.S. political landscape poses additional challenges. Donald Trump’s return to office could reshape the trans-Atlantic partnership, given his "America First" approach, which has previously emphasized a stronger focus on U.S. priorities over multilateral commitments. Trump’s victory signals a permanent shift in the U.S. political landscape, one the world can no longer treat as an anomaly or a temporary departure from the norm. This shift may require Germany to navigate a more independent path, balancing European unity with a less predictable U.S. relationship. Trump’s policies on NATO, trade and climate will likely demand that Germany advocate for European sovereignty while managing any strains within the U.S.-EU alliance.

Domestically, Germany is contending with an emboldened far-right. The Alternative for Germany (AfD) has capitalized on public discontent and economic frustration, reaching over 18% in recent polls. The AfD’s populist nationalism resonates with a portion of the electorate, casting a shadow over European liberalism and heightening concerns for EU cohesion. Although the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) has pledged to block any alliance with the AfD, the growing influence of this party complicates policymaking and reflects a broader ideological divide within Germany.

As Europe confronts the prospect of a second Trump presidency, it must also reassess its security assumptions. For decades, Europe has prospered under the "peace dividend" of NATO’s protection and stability. However, recent developments suggest that Europe may need to take a more active role in ensuring its own security. This could involve forging new partnerships and deepening existing alliances.

One potential partner in this endeavor is Türkiye. Geopolitically positioned between Europe and the Middle East, Türkiye is well-placed to serve as both a bridge and a buffer in areas critical to European security and stability. However, partly in response to what it perceives as European double standards, Türkiye has adopted a more autonomous foreign policy and diversified its partnerships globally. Today, Türkiye holds greater agency than it did 20 years ago, and winning over the Turks will require a more thoughtful approach. Its proximity to key conflict zones and migration routes underscores its strategic importance, yet engaging Türkiye now demands Europe’s acknowledgment of Türkiye’s evolving role and independent stance.

Germany’s internal political stalemate combined with Trump’s imminent reemergence complicates the EU’s efforts to build strategic autonomy – a long-standing objective for Germany as it advocates for a resilient European defense policy. During Trump’s first term, the EU had to adapt to a more transactional U.S. foreign policy approach. Should this trend continue, Germany’s role in shaping European defense and diplomatic policies becomes even more critical. However, Germany’s current instability risks undermining the cohesion necessary to lead, potentially weakening Europe’s response capabilities.

In essence, Europe faces a dual challenge: external pressures from a shifting U.S. dynamic and internal fragility from a divided Germany. Resolving Germany’s coalition deadlock is crucial, as the EU cannot afford a leadership vacuum in Berlin amid rising populism, climate challenges and economic headwinds. Germany’s political future has become a European priority; as Germany goes, so goes Europe. This time, both Trump and the AfD are watching closely. The question remains: Will Europe seize this moment to strengthen strategic partnerships and build resilience, or will it continue to hope for stability in an increasingly unpredictable world?