The municipal election campaign in Türkiye kicked off with a debate on alliances and cooperation. It seems that the People’s Alliance will campaign for the March 31, 2024 elections similarly to the 2019 and 2023 elections following a meeting between President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) Chairperson Devlet Bahçeli.

Moreover, the Turkish leader’s pledge to "take our alliance – which was formed on the night of July 15 (2016) against enemies of the national will – to the future ever stronger" offered insights into the selection of candidates and campaign themes.

Describing the main opposition party’s approach to local government as a "maelstrom of disservice," the president references "Istanbul Anew" and "local government for the 'Century of Türkiye.'"

He associates the Republican People’s Party (CHP) with the "politics of exploitation and fear." He seeks to counter that with the ruling Justice and Development Party’s (AK Party) emphasis on public works, new projects and urbanization.

CHP’s identity, discriminatory politics

Despite including the environment, social policy, urban renewal and disaster management in his public speeches, Erdoğan does not attach less importance to national politics. Responding to CHP Chairperson Özgür Özel’s claim that Kurds and Alevis remain "less equal" in Türkiye, the president accused the main opposition leader of engaging in "politics of discrimination and identity" and agitating the social fault lines that created problems in the 1970s and the 1990s.

"At the top of our agenda is to bring about the 'Century of Türkiye.' On their (the opposition's) agenda is to show themselves in Parliament alongside those carrying out separatist organizations' orders," he pointed out, suggesting that the ruling alliance’s election campaign will blend local politics (e.g., public service, disaster management and urbanization) and national politics, including identity.

Still, it will be important for the People’s Alliance to select the right candidates and strike a balance between local and national campaigns in Istanbul and Ankara. Provided that Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoğlu and Ankara Mayor Mansur Yavaș have not done a great job of providing municipal services over the last five years, there is no reason to believe that they would not welcome a debate around national issues.

Meanwhile, Özel and Imamoğlu have been pushing for an updated alliance in the opposition. Whereas the CHP chairperson calls for province-based and local cooperation, he makes no effort to deny that the word "alliance" has become somewhat obsolete. Yet renaming the deal does not actually modify its content. The bottom line is that the main opposition party wants the 2019 election to repeat itself by joining forces with the pro-PKK Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) and the Good Party (IP).

Unlike his predecessor, Özel agreed to negotiate with the HDP’s successors in a transparent manner. His criticism of the appointment of independent trustees as mayors and argument that the Kurds are "less equal" than other citizens suggest that he intends to collaborate with that movement in some provinces. I seriously doubt that they would refer to this potential partnership as the Nation Alliance. The fact that the opposition would prefer the term "cooperation," however, does not change the fact that they are attempting to attach the IP to the CHP-HDP alliance. Indeed, the sole purpose of rejecting the term "alliance" is to disassociate the current plan from the troubles of the 2019 and 2023 alliances. Ironically, hardly anyone has forgotten that the IP suffered from both partnerships.

Akşener forced into alliance

The target of a persuasion campaign featuring carrots and sticks, IP Chairperson Meral Akşener has agreed to discuss the main opposition party’s proposal with her party’s General Executive Board. She and her movement face a hard choice because the party could very well splinter before next year’s municipal elections.

Will Akşener make an exception to her pledge not to join any alliances for the mayoral races in Istanbul and Ankara for the sake of ending polarization? Will she bow to mounting pressure from those members of her party who have vested interests in the current mayors and "secularists" outside? It remains to be seen whether the IP chairperson will use former CHP Chair Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu’s departure from the political arena as an excuse to accept those terms.

Let me repeat, however, that failure to make a decision promptly would come with a heavy price tag. Let us see whether Akşener will risk losing her parliamentarians or her supporters. If she agrees to join the alliance, her party will be criticized for collaborating with the HDP and the PKK terrorist organization once again. It is important to bear in mind that the CHP is more inclined than before to join forces with the HDP transparently. If the campaign focuses on identity, the IP will face more serious challenges than the CHP and the HDP. That would also make it harder for the movement to persuade the masses if it were to make a renewed effort to end the polarization between the two alliances after March 2024.