The governing Justice and Development Party (AK Party) has consistently garnered electoral support within the range of 35% to 50%, thus securing its tenure since it was founded. This characteristic has granted it the designation of a "dominant party" globally, akin to the Liberal Party of Japan and the Labor Party in the United Kingdom.
As widely acknowledged, the preceding election posed a considerable challenge for the AK Party. The opposition bloc, the Nation Alliance, achieved notable success in the 2019 local elections. Consequently, the period from the local elections to the recent general election was marked by a persistent electoral ambiance, placing the AK Party under continuous pressure.
The AK Party and the People's Alliance demonstrated success in the recent election, securing a prominent increase in votes attributed primarily to what post-election surveys briefly term "citizens' appreciation for the victorious party." This surge in support was evident not only for the AK Party but also extended to the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) and their small ally, the New Welfare Party (YRP).
However, after a while, the AK Party witnessed a decline, primarily attributed to economic concerns. Escalating prices in real estate, cars and food initiated anxiety among the general populace. This was an anticipated electorate behavior when the economy was a prominent and pressing topic.
In the last few days, four months before the local elections, we observed a rise in the AK Party's and even the MHP's votes, and we pondered the reasons for this.
The first reason for this increase is that the economy is no longer among the discussed topics, as it was intensely on the agenda a few months ago. The decline in building prices, and subsequently in the rents and car prices, may be one of the reasons.
The second reason is that the second party of the opposition bloc, the Good Party (IP), is going through turbulent times. The emergence of rumors, especially regarding monetary affairs, has turned the relations within the party gangrenous, and the members of the party are stuck in the trap.
Thirdly, the Republican People's Party (CHP) had a congress last month, and what was said to be "impossible" happened. Former Chairperson Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu lost the election, and Özgür Özel became the new occupant of the post. This change of chairmanship in the main opposition party did not pave the way for a radical change. In a way, according to the people on the street and friends and foes, the 74-year-old Kılıçdaroğlu left, and a 49-year-old Kılıçdaroğlu came.
The confusion in the opposition bloc and its inability to gain momentum led the electorate to see the weakness of its opponents, and the government regained the public's trust.
Furthermore, as I have mentioned in my previous articles several times, whenever Türkiye is confronted with an international issue, be it the Ukraine war, the Karabakh conflict or the Libya issue, especially with President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's reasonable attitude and leadership, a fair point of view suddenly emerges in the public opinion and the electorate appreciates President Erdoğan even more.
Just as during the Ukraine-Russia war, both sides applauded the president, who was standing in between during the Bosporus talks, or as during the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Erdoğan made striking statements that would affect the streets all around the world. And in the war in which Israel is trying to make its way by predominantly killing people, Erdoğan, contrary to other global leaders, described the people defending their land as patriots and mujahideen.
As in previous foreign policy issues, Erdoğan's stance was one of the reasons for the increase of the AK Party's votes.
We find ourselves once again within the electoral sphere. The collective psychology of the voters does not change rapidly. So, four months before the elections, the electorate observed the opposition parties grappling with disorganization, witnessing a waning emphasis on the economy as a prevailing topic and recognizing Türkiye's adherence to a steadfast foreign policy marked with fair and reasonable arguments on a reliable stance. All these have brought President Erdoğan and his party once again to a position of increasing votes and robust standing.
