With the municipal election just three weeks away, the relationship between the People’s Alliance and the New Welfare Party ("Yeniden Refah" in Turkish - YRP) becomes more apparent. The most significant development of the current election cycle was the opposition parties, which formed an alliance with the main opposition, the Republican People’s Party (CHP), in May 2023 and decided to field their own candidates.

The Good Party (IP), which talks about the "third way," embodied that decision most obviously. Its chairwoman, Meral Akşener, remained determined in the face of CHP’s mounting criticism and several resignations from her party.

The Victory Party (ZP), Democracy and Progress Party (DEVA), the Felicity Party (SP), the Future Party (GP) and the Homeland Party (MP) also fielded their own mayoral candidates.

The electoral alliances of 2019 and 2023 took a toll on the popularity of all opposition parties – except CHP. Moreover, the CHP’s condescending jabs alienated the right-wing parties.

Meanwhile, the pro-PKK Green Left Party (YSP), informally known as the Peoples' Equality and Democracy Party (DEM Party), fielded its own candidates (due to intraparty divisions and repeated warnings from the terrorist organization PKK’s commanders in northern Iraq), yet also formed a complex and partial alliance with CHP. For example, the movement has a mayoral candidate in Istanbul who has not been campaigning.

Again, the complex relationship between CHP and YSP continues to be shaped by rhetorical battles, negotiations for council seats and certain districts where one of those parties does not field any candidates.

The opposition parties, in turn, are campaigning by criticizing the governing alliance and the main opposition alike – as part of the "third-way" approach. However, It is impossible to say that their arguments successfully created a certain political climate. By contrast, the CHP leadership refrains from criticizing their former allies in an attempt to win over their respective supporters.

In search of third way

The "third way" approach has not been limited to the opposition either. Let us recall that one of the hottest topics in Turkish politics was the talks between the Justice and Development Party (AK Party) and YRP – which endorsed President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan but also fielded its own parliamentary candidates in May 2023. Unlike the opposition parties, YRP benefited from that partnership and received 2.7% of the vote.

This time, YRP decided to field its own mayoral candidates because the AK Party did not agree to its terms. It is noteworthy, however, that the movement ended up nominating a large number of former AK Party politicians for public office. Another notable development was YRP's decision to pay due respect to President Erdoğan in its criticism of the AK Party government.

What would be the best way to describe the YRP’s position? It certainly does not look like the opposition’s "third way" approach: Despite not having joined the People’s Alliance ahead of the municipal election, YRP specifically aims to win over AK Party voters with its campaign strategy, discourse and candidates.

It is hard to think the AK Party will be happy with that approach. Some level of volatility between various members of a single alliance may be acceptable. Still, there is a difference between winning together and trying to win over disgruntled voters by exploiting the absence of a clear distance. Still, how New Welfare positioned itself and has been taking steps that clearly benefit CHP did not amount to a "third way" approach.

Erdoğan distances People's Alliance from YRP base

Indeed, as expected, President Erdoğan has been distancing the People’s Alliance base from YRP. The first such statement came after a recent gathering of the AK Party’s provincial campaign directors: "In many places (YRP) fielded candidates who either parted ways with us or opposed us."

Speaking in Malatya on Wednesday, Erdoğan also made the following remarks (that were widely believed to have been about YRP): "Some parties have emerged that seek to make us lose, rather than win themselves, by nominating our party’s former mayors, parliamentarians and members. We will not allow anyone to try to make us lose and to try and march in our shadow with certain statements and suggestions."

In other words, the Turkish president respects political parties' choice to go their own way but seeks to prevent other movements and candidates from chipping away at his party’s base by portraying themselves as former AK Party members. He does not want a brand of politics, which could be costly for the AK Party, to become established near his movement – as if that other party were part of the People’s Alliance. Thus, the line between the AK Party and New Welfare becomes clearer.