As you know, I have frequently addressed the concept of strategic autonomy in my articles over the past year. The demise of the hyper-globalization model, enthusiastically promoted by neoliberalism, marked by the two "black swans," namely the COVID-19 pandemic and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, has compelled major world economies to confront reality.
In the past three years, analyses outlining a global economic-political system centered on power hubs have gained prominence. The impact of the Global North-Global South structure is increasingly evident in the international order. We find ourselves at a juncture where discussions about a "second Cold War" are underway in defining a multipolar world. Consequently, leading economies have expedited their efforts to achieve self-sufficiency in critical sectors such as agriculture, food, energy, transportation, logistics, defense and digital transformation. Achieving strategic autonomy necessitates meticulous strategic planning and intelligence.
In an enlightening article for NATO Review, Ruben-Erik Diaz-Plaja, a NATO policy advisor, and Joshua Polchar, an expert from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Strategic Foresight Unit, introduce strategic foresight as a crucial component of the above-mentioned significant concepts.
The two authors emphatically argue against perceiving strategic foresight as merely predicting the future correctly. Instead, they contend that the crucial aspect lies in the ability of a company, institution or country to be aware of future changes from today, analyze potential future shifts thoroughly, internalize their implications and proactively prepare for alternative future scenarios. Their article aptly titled "Don't fight the future, decide it!" encapsulates this perspective.
In the current era of the 21st century, establishing a strategic planning working network, grounded in the strategic wisdom and strategic foresight cultivated by relevant institutions in 40 economies engaged in intense competition, has become an utmost priority. This entails a strategic planning working network dedicated to preemptively preparing the country for decisions regarding the potential impacts of future scenarios in the global economy, trade, politics and security. It embodies a strategic intelligence approach that anticipates and prepares processes and steps for decisions in every conceivable future scenario, without conflicting or battling with problems and challenges.
Until recently, the traditional approach to future predictions aimed to eliminate uncertainties and limit possible scenarios, focusing on the problem rather than the solution or decision, essentially combating the problem. However, in the contemporary "age of ambiguity," even the most influential players in the international political economy system find it impossible to eradicate a multitude of uncertainties.
Therefore, the new approach prioritizes determination, creating implementable solutions when faced with problems, and proactively preparing required decisions for those solutions. Integrating impact analyses of five megatrends and five destabilizing forces, as discussed in one of my previous articles, into strategic foresight and establishing a strategic planning working network detailing strategic foresight is the essence of this work. The success of this network lies in its ability to collect data and analyses from all stakeholders and actors in the economic-political system, consolidate it and create comprehensive road maps.
Diaz-Plaja and Polchar also underline a very important point; what is important is not which future will come true, but what lessons we can take from which futures. The Turkish republic, whose 100th anniversary we are celebrating, is the honorable story of our effort to overcome problems by prioritizing strategic intelligence every single time. This is the essence of the strategic intelligence behind the "domestic and national" ("yerli ve milli" in Turkish) focused strategic moves under the determined and visionary leadership of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.
Türkiye's steps based on strategic wisdom and planning in the fields of national defense, energy security and transportation-logistics network connecting the continents over the last 20 years have positioned the country as a key player and a secure port in Eurasia. In an era marked by escalating global and regional uncertainties, we are fortifying our strategic planning network and enhancing our capabilities in strategic forecasting. Our commitment is unwavering as we strive to maintain a prominent presence in the world of the future.
