Narendra Modi’s invincibility myth is shattered

The fledgling Aam Aadmi Party (AAP, Common Man's Party) has shattered Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's invincibility myth by scoring a stunning win in Delhi's local assembly elections. But it remains to be seen whether it will force a change in Modi's hardline policies. After his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) won the national parliamentary elections in May last year, Modi built an image of a formidable election winner. He campaigned heavily as the BJP achieved a string of poll successes in four state elections. When the elections were announced for Delhi, many expected his party to put up a strong showing. The AAP similarly enjoyed good support, especially among lower income groups, and was seen as a worthy rival to the BJP.

But what happened on Feb. 10 when the final results were announced was spectacular. The numbers speak for themselves – the APP won 67 of the total of 70 seats, with the remaining three going to the BJP. The Indian National Congress Party (INC), which earlier ruled the state of Delhi for 15 years, was wiped out. For more than a year Delhi was under the governor's central rule after the last elected government, headed by AAP leader Arvind Kejriwal, resigned merely 49 days after its formation due to a political impasse.

Now the electorate of Delhi has delivered a decisive mandate in favor of the AAP. The party emerged in November 2012 against India's endemic corruption, which affects average people on a daily basis. The 46-year-old Kejriwal campaigned on the plank of good governance and opposed Modi's communal and divisive agenda. His win represents a message to Modi that speeches alone cannot always win you polls, and Indian voters cannot be taken for granted. The mood in Delhi should be a warning to Modi's party, which despite its huge mandate in the general election, has not delivered on the key promise of inclusive economic development.

The government's record in areas such as improving law and order, women's safety and preserving communal harmony is far from satisfactory. In the run up to last year's general election and after Modi came to power, there have been many incidents of religious violence against minorities. Extremists from the BJP and its political affiliates have launched a campaign to convert Muslims and Christians to Hinduism, posing new threats to inter-community relations in the country. There were attempts to polarize people on religious lines in India's capital as well when riots broke out in one neighborhood last year. Not surprisingly, the parties that champion India's communal harmony and diversity have drawn comfort from the Delhi polls, hoping to score AAP-style success against the BJP in other states.

The AAP's victory also shows that issues like uninterrupted power supply, educational opportunities, good roads and public transportation systems are more important to the public than the religious issues ominously championed by the BJP. If the AAP emerges as a national party it can pose a serious threat to the INC, which has ruled India for much of the period since independence. The BJP denies the Delhi election was a referendum on the BJP's nine-month rule at the central level, but there is no doubt that people have expressed their disillusionment with Modi's style of governance. It must act as an eye opener for party veterans who have let the Hindutva brigade of religious hardliners, controlled by the BJP's patron, Rashtriya Sevak Sangh, create a communal mess in the country during the last nine months.

One of their causes is the so-called "love jihad," a crusade against inter-religion marriage – a veiled attempt to prohibit Muslim men from marrying Hindu women. But their real aim is to cause communal conflagration wherever possible. The BJP and its affiliates are obsessed with their own brand of Hinduism that seeks to establish visible domination over others. Modi promised before the parliamentary poll that he would work for the welfare of all Indians. People believe in such promises and gave Modi a resounding victory against the inefficient INC. As the INC has weakened over the years, its traditional support base among Muslims, Christians, Dalits – low caste Hindus – and liberal Hindus has shifted to other parties. The AAP was a beneficiary of this trend in Delhi.

The chastised Modi government has been forced into introspection. For the first time the Modi government publicly asked the Delhi Police, which is under the central government's control, to look into rising crimes in the city after an attack on a Christian school. Modi has not publicly condemned a spate of incidents of arson, vandalism and burglary at Christian places of worship in recent weeks. So there is no clear indication that the Modi government is about to change the way it does politics. It enjoys a strong majority in the national parliament, receives huge backing from the corporate sector and its core constituency remains hardline. One poll defeat may not be enough to sway Modi.