The hypersonic missile arms race has begun and Russia is not far behind the U.S. In March 2018, Russia tested its advanced hypersonic air-to-surface missile KH-47M2, codenamed Kinzhal. It was fired from a MiG 31BM aircraft.
Russia claims it is a high-precision air-launched ballistic system designed to evade U.S. missile defense systems. The missile can reportedly travel at speeds of Mach 10 and is highly maneuverable, making it difficult for missile defense shield to intercept. The missile is already in trial services in Russia's Southern Military District.
Given its 2,000 kilometer range, the air-launched missile would give the aircraft a greater stand-off capability to launch air strikes, thereby reducing the possibility of the aircraft being destroyed by enemy air defenses. This would provide the aircraft with deep strike capability especially as the missiles would also be invincible.
The missile is nuclear capable and that is what makes this Russian hypersonic weapon different from its U.S. counterparts. The U.S. plans to develop hypersonic weapons systems in order to strengthen its "Conventional Prompt Global Strike" strategy, whereby it plans to reach targets in any part of the world in less than sixty minutes with its conventional delivery systems. The Russians on the other hand, along with China are developing hypersonic weapons systems that can deliver nuclear warheads also.
Nuclear warheads mean Russia is trying to strengthen its nuclear deterrence vis-a-vis the U.S. And hypersonic nuclear-capable missiles mean that Russia's ability to strike targets with nuclear warheads at intercontinental ranges (given the range of the missile plus the range of the aircraft) would only be greater. This is probably the reason why Russian aircraft have conducted more than 250 sorties since the beginning of the year, trying to perfect the missile system for its aircraft.
At the moment, the U.S. Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system has successfully been able to intercept air-launched ballistic missiles during flight test, but how far the THAAD would be effective against hypersonic ballistic missiles remains to be seen.
Not only is Russia developing hypersonic air-launched ballistic missiles, but Russia is also developing the Yu-74, a hypersonic glide vehicle that is also capable of carrying nuclear warheads. Russia has also developed the hypersonic 3M22 Zircon hypersonic anti-ship cruise missiles. These hypersonic weapons systems would enable Russia to reach time-sensitive targets without any hassle while also enable the country to attack mobile targets. Apart from this, Moscow has also ventured into hypersonic nuclear-capable bombers and reports claim that it is a sixth generation aircraft – the most advanced versions of bombers.
Nuclearizing hypersonic weapon systems definitely should be a concern for the U.S. at a time when it plans to reduce the role of nuclear weapons from its national security strategy, as Russia continues to develop sophisticated nuclear delivery systems. In fact, the Trump administration has stressed the need to develop newer nuclear delivery systems in order to keep pace in the new hypersonic arms race.
As hypersonic weapons systems reduce the time required to reach a target, they seriously affect the strategic balance. The scope of launching a pre-emptive nuclear strike rises as the inability of missile defense system to intercept hypersonic missiles makes the missiles invincible vis-a-vis enemy missile defense systems. The THAAD may still be capable of intercepting the hypersonic glide vehicles but that credibility will be proved when the missile defense system is tested against a hypersonic glide vehicle.
It is yet to be seen how far Russia has really progressed with its hypersonic technology. There are skepticisms on Russia's claims on its hypersonic delivery systems. However, considering that Russia perceives threats from Western borders (NATO expansion), and also given the crisis in Syria, such sophisticated weapons only strengthens Russia's nuclear deterrence posture.
On the other hand, Russia is also seeking to strengthen its foothold in the Asia-Pacific Region and military prowess would only make things easier for Russia. But with hypersonic missiles, future arms control measures, for instance, the New START, would only become more complex. A global ban on the hypersonic delivery system is the only solution as it can prevent an irrational pre-emptive strike that would be difficult to prevent, given the rapid and swift nature of the weapon systems.
Developing nuclear capable hypersonic delivery systems by Russia is not a responsible action as it would only influence other states to follow suit. Conventional hypersonic weapon systems lead to lesser complications in terms of arms control measures and strategic stability. Russia should reconsider its decision of nuclearizing its hypersonic weapon systems.
* India-based freelance analyst