Syria's fragile warfare conditions promise little for China unless the status quo is changed for the sake of a predictable future for the war in Syria
The radicalization process culminated with the TIP's declaration of loyalty to the militant (and/or terrorist) groups like Daesh and al Nusra Front in 2013 when its members widened their goals and participated in the so-called global jihad. The leader of the group, Abdul Haq al-Turkistani, has been promoting the idea of global jihad and encouraging his followers to go to conflict areas in the Middle East. The group's Arabic language propaganda journal "Islamic Turkestan" enabled the spreading of those ideas, whereas internet videos in which Turkistani himself appeared have also gone viral across the region. In a recent video released in late May this year, Turkistani denounced Daesh's claimed caliphate as "illegitimate" and "non-acceptable." He even condemned the IMU's activities in and around the Fergana region.
As of today, more than 2000 TIP fighters supposedly joined the war in Syria on behalf of militant (and/or terrorist) groups like Daish, Jaish al-Fatah and the al-Nusra Front which was recently renamed itself the Jabhat Fateh al-Sham. Even if the TIP has a confusion about its affiliation with the aforementioned groups, it nevertheless continues to believe in a worldwide caliphate in the international arena and to pose a separatist challenge against the Chinese state on a domestic level.
The TIP has increased its violent presence by using terror methods in and around China since the Urumqi riot. A recent car bomb attack targeted the Chinese embassy in Kyrgyzstan's capital Bishkek on Aug. 30; it killed no one, but it has shown the global dimensions of the threat posed by terrorism, militancy and insurgency against China itself. Although no group has claimed responsibility for the attack, Chinese officials did not hesitate to label it as an act of terrorism given the fact that the perpetrator was a Uyghur national with a fake Tajik passport. Chinese security authorities have been frequently securitizing the Uyghur issue in order to conceal human rights abuses in the region, where all criminal incidents were identified with the Uyghur community. The communist regime already felt insecure on its borderlands since the TIP has designated itself as the Central Asian branch of Daish. Now the Chinese leadership has properly understood that Uyghur separatism will continue to be radicalized by using violent methods, as far as Syria remains a hotbed of terrorism, a fact which in return has the potential to affect the People's Republic's national and homeland securities.Alert for China: No pain no gain in SyriaChina's entrance into the so-called Syrian quagmire in order protect its own security and geopolitical interests has several meanings for itself and the region as a whole. No doubt China alone is not able to eradicate terrorist threats and put an end to the internal conflicts in Syria. In this sense, Beijing should be very cautious in a region that is either unknown and distant to China, and the People's Liberation Army's capacity is naturally very limited in a hybrid and proxy warfare environment like the Middle East. Chinese authorities are also well aware the fact that Syria might be a convenient field to test and augment the red army's operational abilities before the country faces potential prospective security challenges in the Asia-Pacific region.However, military cooperation with the Syrian regime signifies more troubles for China if Beijing's leadership is unable to contribute peacebuilding and conflict resolution efforts. Currently, China is not a belligerent in the war and it only pledged to give military and humanitarian aid to enforce the Syrian regime against any opposition group. Being positioned with any of the warring parties in Syria requires double-edged diplomacy with regional and international powers. Given its historical and political depth as well as the comparative advantages of its economy, China might perform such a diplomacy vis-à-vis other parties in the region. But the risk for Beijing would be the institutionalization of violence and terror in mainland China if the communist regime insists on keeping Assad in power.From a Middle Eastern perspective, Assad's remaining in power seems not to contribute to a resolution at all, and all parties are now needed to compromise on a transitional government which could bring stability in Syria by the help of the international community. In this context, China should participate in peacebuilding and conflict resolution process as a rising world power, whereby it might counterbalance other great powers like Russia and the US in the Middle East. China's permanency in the region, where it has huge economic and commercial interests, gradually becomes very dependent on its role and contribution in the way of solutions to the Syrian civil war. Syria is the western end of the ancient Silk Route on the coast of the Levant, and the basin is of utmost important for China's long anticipated "one belt, one road" initiatives proposed by the incumbent President Xi Jinping.Some critics indicate that Beijing was trying to change the agenda from issues surrounding the South China Sea to Syria. In doing so, the People's Republic can diminish Western criticism and pressure through participating in fighting with terror, as Russia used the same method when it became involved in Syria in order to alleviate Western rage and criticism regarding the Ukrainian crisis. However, Syria has already shown that pursuing diplomacy is very rocky, and has a boomerang effect inside which might hit back both China and Russia. Like Beijing, Moscow has also been very concerned with the militant flow from its autonomous mainly Muslim-populated North Caucasus oblasts to Syria and vice versa. So Russia is also facing the same risk if the Kremlin makes fatal mistakes in terms of policy making and conflict management in Syria. In brief, Syria's fragile warfare conditions promise little for China unless the status quo is unchanged for the sake of the predictable future of the war in Syria.* Freelance Eurasia Analyst and TV Journalist at TRT World