Italian PM Renzi risks job in vote over reforms


When Matteo Renzi burst onto Italy's national political stage, he set out to consign all that was outdated and ineffective in the country to the scrap heap, pledging to make economically lumbering Italy more competitive. Now, not even three years into office as premier, Renzi himself risks being trashed.

Much to his alarm, a yes-or-no referendum Sunday on government-championed constitutional reforms has been transformed by rivals into a virtual plebiscite on the 41-year-old leader, Italy's youngest. A win by the "No" camp on a centerpiece reform of his government would be expected to trigger Renzi's resignation.

After Britain's vote to leave the EU and Donald Trump's presidential triumph in the United States, Italy's establishment is viewed as next in line for a slap from the fed-up and the forgotten. It is a narrative that has played strongly internationally but less so in Italy, where the merits of the proposed reform itself have dominated discussion. At stake Sunday is whether to slash the size and powers of the second-chamber Senate and centralize some powers currently held at local or regional level.

One of the constitutional reforms would reduce the Senate from 315 to 100 members and strip them of most of their powers, including holding crucial no-confidence votes. The senators would also no longer be elected by voters. With Parliament's current two legislative chambers now required to give not one but two rounds of approval to every bill, Renzi contends the Senate overhaul will accelerate law-making. Another reform would give some powers now held by the regions to the central government. "Yes" backers say that will reduce the frequent, drawn-out court battles between Rome and Italy's regional governments.

Voting procedures open to 4 million Italian expatriates ended Thursday, and, according to unofficial data picked up by La Republica, turnout was an unusually high 40 per cent. Polls will open Sunday for the remaining 46 million eligible to vote in Italy.

If Renzi goes, it will, at the very least usher in a period of uncertainty, notably for financial markets, and could derail a fledgling recovery in the Eurozone's third-largest economy. But if he wins, it will be a significant boost for the former mayor of Florence's broader reform agenda.

Renzi sees the emasculation of the second chamber as key to ending legislative logjams and clearing the way for overdue reforms of the judicial, education and administrative systems. A No vote on the other hand could bolster the burgeoning popularity of Italy's populist and far-right opposition parties, already buoyed by Trump's success. Beppe Grillo, leader of the populist Five Star Movement, hailed the US election result as a "massive screw you" from voters and urged Italians to follow suit on Dec. 4.