Huge decrease in support for CHP’s Kılıçdaroğlu ahead of June 7, poll indicates

A poll conducted by the Ankara-based Objective Research Center (ORC) with the participation of people who voted for the Republican People's Party (CHP) in previous elections, said that support of CHP Chairman Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu has decreased significantly compared to a survey conducted by the same pollster in 2013 with only months to go before the June 7 general election.

Conducted between 16 February and 19 February in 30 provinces with the participation of 1,680 people, the survey indicated that 74.3 percent of CHP voters surveyed view Kılıçdaroğlu as being unsuccessful, while 17.5 percent consider him successful. Of the surveyed CHP voters 8.2 percent also said that they found the CHP chair party successful.

According to the survey, 76.5 percent of CHP supporters surveyed believe that the party will not be able to achieve more than 25 percent in the upcoming general elections if it runs under the leadership of Kılıçdaroğlu, whereas 23.5 percent believe that it will garner more than 25 percent of the votes.

The poll said that 77 percent of respondents believed that Kılıçdaroğlu should leave his post, while 23 percent believed there is no need for a change in leadership. The survey by ORC on 3-6 September 2013 in 42 provinces indicated that 78 percent of CHP voters supported Kılıçdaroğlu, while 11.2 percent of surveyed people found Kılıçdaroğlu unsuccessful and 10.8 had no opinion. This percentage saw a huge decrease within the last two years, according to the survey.

Some of the reasons behind the decreasing support are linked to allegations circulating in the media and by some CHP members such as claims of alienation from CHP ideology, an alleged alliance with the Gülen Movement, which is accused of infiltrating key state bodies to overthrow the government, the CHP's opening-up to right-wing voters and wrong policies and decisions in the August 10 presidential election and March 30 local elections.

Internal conflict in the CHP first erupted during the March 30 local elections. The failure of the main opposition in the elections caused party dissidents to raise their voices against the party administration while some accused the CHP of cooperating with the Gülen Movement behind closed doors. The August 10 presidential election also witnessed the same "atmosphere of failure" for the party, and caused it to hold its 18th extraordinary party congress in September. Even though Kılıçdaroğlu was re-elected, party dissidents continued to criticize the party after Kılıçdaroğlu transferred Mehmet Bekaroğlu, who was a member of the far-right Felicity Party (SP) to the CHP.

The first resignation by a neo-nationalist party dissident in the CHP came with the renowned Ankara Deputy Emine Ülker Tarhan. Criticizing the CHP for its "wrong policies," Tarhan resigned and set up her own party, the Anatolia Party (AnaParti). After Tarhan's resignation, former CHP Eskişehir Deputy Süheyl Batum was referred to the party's disciplinary committee for his supportive comments on Tarhan's statements, and was later dismissed from the party. Intra-party dissidents were not the only CHP figures with whom the party disciplinary had to deal. CHP İzmir Deputy Birgül Ayman Güler resigned from the party after she was referred to the party disciplinary committee due to her claims that the CHP was in an alliance with the Gülen Movement. Güler accused the party of forming an alliance with the Gülen Movement during the March 30 local elections when they cooperated with different components of the movement in various provinces and districts. She said that the alliance with the Gülen Movement must be questioned. "Despite the party administration's denials, the CHP cooperated with the Gülen Movement during the March 30 local elections," she asserted.

The pollster also asked CHP voters who they would support for the party chair and 38.1 percent named former Şişli Mayor Mustafa Sarıgül, who served Istanbul's Şişli district for a long time. Sarıgül was the CHP Istanbul mayoral candidate in the March 30 local election, but he lost the heated race against Justice and Development Party (AK Party) candidate and current Istanbul Mayor Kadir Topbaş. As Sarıgül allegedly did not want to lose his authority in the Şişli municipality, he allegedly issued a death threat to the current Şişli mayor, Hayri İnönü, who previously had worked with Sarıgül, when İnönü had trouble with Deputy Mayor Emir Sarıgül, who is the son of Mustafa Sarıgül. The Şişli municipality conflict caused a stir in December in the CHP and a prosecutor later launched an investigation into the death threat allegations.

The second name put forward by CHP voters is Muharrem İnce with 25 percent. He was the only CHP member that Kılıçdaroğlu competed for the party chair in the 18th extraordinary party congress. During the election in the congress, İnce lost against Kılıçdaroğlu with a 325-vote difference, but he said that he would not become one of the party dissidents for the sake of the CHP.

Kılıçdaroğlu was the third name mentioned by the CHP voters as 21.9 percent wanted him to continue in his post, 7.2 percent said other people should take the post of party chair and 7.8 percent did not answer.