Agriculture, tourism set to yield better-than-expected economic growth
| AA Photo

Stimulated by the strong performance in the first quarter of the year, Turkish economy is expected to beat growth expectations, capitalizing on agriculture and tourism revenues, experts say



Highlighting the recovery to Turkey's economic growth, which stood at 5 percent in the first quarter of the year, international institutions and experts have pointed to an upward revision.

The International Monetary Fund's (IMF) updated World Economic Outlook (WEO) report, which included an assessment of Turkey in the "Emerging and Developing Europe" section, said growth in the relevant country group will accelerate parallel to positive expectations about Turkey.

The report added that Turkey's exports strongly recovered in the last quarter of 2016 and in the first quarter of 2017, indicating that external demand for Turkish goods could rise with positive expectations for Eurozone countries.

Considering the analysis by the IMF, which has maintained its growth forecasts for Turkey at 2.5 percent for this year and 3.3 percent for 2018, expectations for an upward revision has also increased.

Speaking to Anadolu Agency (AA), Ziraat Bank Economist Bora Tamer Yilmaz said Turkey's average growth rate in a quarter was 1.1 percent, according to the renewed GDP series and that expectations about Turkey should start at an annual growth rate of 4.4 percent, even in a stationary period.

Yılmaz said that various observers had thought that at the beginning of this year, the Turkish economy could go into recession.

"However, as the strong performance in the first quarter become clear, it can be said that the 5 percent growth was not limited just to headline data," he said, adding that when the composition was examined, the contribution of foreign trade was one of the main dynamics in Turkey's growth that exceeded expectations.

'Growth expectations should be updated'

Yılmaz said that almost half the growth consisted of net exports, noting that along with tourism and agriculture, a growth rate of over 5 percent was possible.

"From this point of view, it is necessary for observers of the Turkish economy to update their growth forecasts and realign them with the actual course," he added.

Pointing out the fact that Turkish industry, which is located in the European value and supply chain, is directly affected by the developments in the European economy, Yılmaz said many factories in Turkey are exporting intermediate goods, produced under contract, to Europe. He said that the automotive sector, a major locomotive for the country's economy, is well integrated into the global value chain.

Yılmaz said: "There are important facilities in Turkey that provide high-quality intermediate goods to the European automotive sector. This year the automotive sector is expected to break the $25 billion record set in 2008, with a total of $27 billion in exports."

"Increase in employment in Europe and relatively low fuel prices resulted in increased consumer spending. Thus, the Turkish industry did not remain limited to the automotive sector. It also manufactured products, such as mechanical equipment and textiles in line with European demands," he said.

He stressed that in 2008 when the automotive sector broke multiple records, it coincided with an all-time high in the euro-dollar exchange rate and with the uptrend in the euro now at the forefront again, it may affect Turkey's foreign trade positively this year.

'Turkey positively diverges with strong growth'

Managing Director at Turkey Macro View (TMV) consulting firm İnanç Sözer said that the Turkish economy has positively diverged in its region, as well as in the G20 countries, thanks to the recovery in domestic demand and exports, due to the strong performance of its main trading partners in the European Union (EU), and its expansionary policy measures this year.

Sözer added that the surprisingly low growth estimates at the end of 2016 were to be revised with following the first quarter data for this year was revealed.

"As implied in the IMF's final report, it is understood that the growth estimates for Turkey can be revised significantly. However, we predict that the Turkish economy will grow at a rate of 5 percent in 2017, and upward revisions in growth will continue for the upcoming period," he said.

He emphasized the importance of export-oriented economy for sustainable growth and suggested that with the realization of expansionary fiscal, macroeconomic incentives and especially through the Credit Guarantee Fund, Turkey could see strong growth as well as improvement of its financial conditions.

'Turkey's product and country diversity in exports enables a balanced growth'

İnanç Sözer said that an export-oriented growth could be achieved through an optimistic course of demand conditions in the Eurozone this year and noted that while the IMF has not changed its world growth forecast, it has revised up its growth forecast for the Eurozone.

Recalling how the economic recovery in the neighboring countries, Turkey's diversity in exports and recent reforms have enabled its balanced growth, Sözer said even though the political developments sometimes overshadow the achievements in the economy, Turkey's share in global exports has increased by a third in the last decade, a record high.

He claimed that Turkey realizes 32 percent of its imports and 47 percent of its exports in euro and said that though the rise in the euro generally improves the balance of the companies, it also suppresses the current account deficit through the improvement of the foreign trade rate.

"Regardless of the developments in the exchange rate, exports in Turkey will accelerate and growth will continue to exceed expectations as long as the EU grows vigorously," Sözer said.