Inflation expected to stabilize as Turkish lira finds its level
Although the Turkish inflation rate was higher in 2015 than 2014 according to December's data, analysts expect it to stabilize in the near future as the "drivers of inflation are weakening."
"We expect inflation to stabilize in the coming months," Christopher Dembik, an economist with Saxo Bank in Paris, said.
According to a report from the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) on Jan. 4, annual inflation rose from 8.1 percent in November to 8.81 percent in December while analysts said that a number of the major drivers of the inflation are temporary.
The government says that it is taking action to stabilize inflation. Deputy Prime Minister Mehmet
Şimşek pledged to "take solid steps in the fight against the rising inflation rate in 2016," in an interview with NTV on Jan. 4. One of the challenges noted is the fall of the Turkish lira against the dollar, which on Wednesday reached above 3.0 against U.S. currency, from about 2.96 on Monday.
While a weakened lira fuels inflation, the Turkish currency has been expected to fall somewhat as pressure rises on the emerging market in the wake of the Federal Reserve›s interest rate increase on Dec. 16.
As Goldman Sachs analysts pointed out in a note released on Jan. 4, policymakers in many emerging markets are working to find a compromise between supporting growth and keeping inflation in check. "2016 should be another year with low inflation rates," analysts at the investment bank said.
In Turkey, inflation may be expected to stabilize somewhere between 8 and 9 percent, according to several analysts.
"Inflation is partly being driven by temporary factors," said Attila Yeşilada, an economist with Global Source Partners in Istanbul. "Price increases for electricity and gas, along with tax hikes on alcohol, cigarettes and mobile phones are all temporary factors that are pushing inflation higher at the beginning of the New Year. And the minimum wage increase approved by the government in December will also contribute to higher inflation in the near term," he explained. However, once these temporary factors fall into place, inflation should stabilize if there is no unexpected action from the Federal Reserve to raise U.S. rates, Yeşilada said.
The Fed has committed to four interest rate hikes this year, but traders expect only two.
In the medium to long term, the structural reforms on the agenda of the new government are expected to help Turkish economic growth, Dembik said.
said that the government would realize the required reforms in the next couple of months. "In this manner, Turkey could differentiate itself from other countries in a positive manner," he said. "Turkey succeeded in growing above the global average in 2015. We maintained our budget discipline, but allocated some weak areas for the sake of investments as Turkey needs to reel in more investments."
"Well continue to preserve our approach to the fiscal discipline this year as well," the minister added.
"We expect inflation to stabilize in the coming months," Christopher Dembik, an economist with Saxo Bank in Paris, said.
According to a report from the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) on Jan. 4, annual inflation rose from 8.1 percent in November to 8.81 percent in December while analysts said that a number of the major drivers of the inflation are temporary.
The government says that it is taking action to stabilize inflation. Deputy Prime Minister Mehmet
Şimşek pledged to "take solid steps in the fight against the rising inflation rate in 2016," in an interview with NTV on Jan. 4. One of the challenges noted is the fall of the Turkish lira against the dollar, which on Wednesday reached above 3.0 against U.S. currency, from about 2.96 on Monday.
While a weakened lira fuels inflation, the Turkish currency has been expected to fall somewhat as pressure rises on the emerging market in the wake of the Federal Reserve›s interest rate increase on Dec. 16.
As Goldman Sachs analysts pointed out in a note released on Jan. 4, policymakers in many emerging markets are working to find a compromise between supporting growth and keeping inflation in check. "2016 should be another year with low inflation rates," analysts at the investment bank said.
In Turkey, inflation may be expected to stabilize somewhere between 8 and 9 percent, according to several analysts.
"Inflation is partly being driven by temporary factors," said Attila Yeşilada, an economist with Global Source Partners in Istanbul. "Price increases for electricity and gas, along with tax hikes on alcohol, cigarettes and mobile phones are all temporary factors that are pushing inflation higher at the beginning of the New Year. And the minimum wage increase approved by the government in December will also contribute to higher inflation in the near term," he explained. However, once these temporary factors fall into place, inflation should stabilize if there is no unexpected action from the Federal Reserve to raise U.S. rates, Yeşilada said.
The Fed has committed to four interest rate hikes this year, but traders expect only two.
In the medium to long term, the structural reforms on the agenda of the new government are expected to help Turkish economic growth, Dembik said.
said that the government would realize the required reforms in the next couple of months. "In this manner, Turkey could differentiate itself from other countries in a positive manner," he said. "Turkey succeeded in growing above the global average in 2015. We maintained our budget discipline, but allocated some weak areas for the sake of investments as Turkey needs to reel in more investments."
"Well continue to preserve our approach to the fiscal discipline this year as well," the minister added.