Probable global labor shortage advantage for Turkey
ISTANBUL — A new report suggests that Turkey could benefit from a worldwide labor shortage between 2020 and 2030. Depending on the labor efficiencies and rates of gross domestic production (GDP) in various countries, especially developed countries like Germany, Russia and Japan, labor forces are expected to shrink over the next 15 years. Turkey however is expected, at the same time, to display a surplus of labor, which may help the country turn a potential crisis into an opportunity.According to the report "The Upcoming Crisis of Global Capability" posted by the Boston Consulting Group (BGC), one of the leading management consultancy companies, a labor shortage will emerge between 2020 and 2030. Economies of 25 countries, covering G20 countries including Turkey, were scrutinized in the survey.Accordingly, it was stressed that to keep the balance of labor supply-demand will be remarkably difficult. The fact that current positions cannot be filled because of the labor shortage or the inability to create sufficient employment opportunities for the current labor force will affect the global economy in the level of $10 trillion (more than 10 percent of the total GDP of the world). When it comes to Turkey, which had 27 million employees in 2012, it will display a contrary picture to the global dire straits. According to the analysis of BCG, the mean labor supply will grow much rapidly in 2012-2020 compared to many European countries with an annual compound rate of growth 1.39 percent. Although the rate of growth will decline in 2020-2030, the growth will be maintained with an annual compound growth rate of 0.74 percent.When estimated GPD rates and increases in labor efficiency are taken into account, a surplus of 7-8 percent in 2020 and 0-4 percent in 2030 will be observed with regard to total labor supply.Although Turkey's population will get older in 2020-2030 and the fertility rate will partially decrease, BCG Turkey's General Director and Managing Partner Burak Tansan noted, "It is possible for Turkey to convert the prospective labor surplus to an advantage. "First of all, the rising number of employees will force the need to address reforms in the area of education, which will bring about a more efficient labor force, especially the promotion of entrepreneurship that can transform the labor surplus into a national competitive advantage. "When the global conditions are added, Turkey may resolve the labor shortage in surrounding countries through correct foreign relations and labor can be exported to countries that suffer from this problem."