As Riyadh claims its Patriot ballistic missile system is defending Saudi Arabia against attacks by Houthi forces in Yemen, some defense analysts claim that it might not be the case. In fact, they say the U.S. defense system itself is running on hype.
On March 25, Riyadh said Houthi forces had fired seven missiles, all of which were intercepted. However, piecing together images of the Patriot launches with mapping of the debris, analysts found the Saudi tale highly unlikely, a report by the Foreign Policy published Wednesday said.
Images on social media show one Patriot interceptor exploding after launch, while another turning back in midair and crashing into the ground. While the other interceptors may have functioned as advertised, it is doubtful.
Jeffery Lewis, author of the study, and analysts at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies examined missile attacks on Saudi Arabia in November and December 2017, finding that Saudi claims to have successfully intercepted the missiles were likely untrue.
Mapping debris from the missiles and interceptors, the analysts found the warheads continued into Riyadh, only failing due to missing their targets by a few hundred meters.
The clear failure of the Patriot system in Saudi Arabia cast a shadow on the U.S. missile defense system's capabilities and effectiveness elsewhere.
In the 1991 Gulf War, the American public was told the Patriot could intercept 45 of 47 Scud missiles – near-perfect performance. The U.S. army, however, later downgraded the performance rate to 50 percent, saying "higher" confidence could only be assured in only about 25 percent of cases. One Congressional Research Service employee said even that estimate was optimistic, as the interceptors had actually only downed one of the Scuds.
"There is little evidence to prove that the Patriot hit more than a few Scud missiles launched by Iraq during the Gulf War, and there are some doubts about even these engagements," a pigeonholed report by the House Committee on Government Operations said at the time."
If military officials know more than the public about their weak defense system, the U.S. commander in chief doesn't let on.
After the missile attack on Saudi Arabia in November 2017, despite U.S. officials confirmed there was no successful intercept, President Donald Trump told reporters, "Our system knocked the missile out of the air. That's how good we are. Nobody makes what we make, and now we're selling it all over the world."
Trump's confidence doesn't only apply to his allies' security. He seems to think the Patriot would protect the U.S. from critical threats as well. When asked about North Korea, he said: "We have missiles that can knock out a missile in the air 97 percent of the time, and if you send two of them, it's going to get knocked down."
Despite the worrying reports, the boasts of Trump and other officials about the system's performance continue to earn the U.S. defense industry new customers.
On Wednesday, Poland signed a deal with the U.S. to buy Raytheon Co's Patriot missile defense system for $4.75 billion (3.8 billion euros), in hopes of protecting itself against an emboldened Russia.
Turkey, which has signed deals with Russia to purchase the S-400 missile defense system, may also consider buying the Patriot system, Turkish officials have said.
Several other NATO allies – namely the Netherlands, Germany, Spain and Greece – already have Patriot systems.