The road to early elections
Cracks in the HDP leadership: Two members of the HDP have accepted being in the caretaker government, while Levent Tüzel, a HDP deputy, turned down the prime minister's offer, claiming that the government will cause tensions among the public to escalate
Turkey's major political parties failed to form a coalition government by the constitutionally mandated deadline and the Supreme Election Board (YSK) announced that early elections will take place on Nov. 1, 2015.At this time, the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) is better prepared for the vote than its competitors. After all, the party has been waiting for early elections since the June 7 parliamentary race. Within the first 24 hours, MHP Chairman Devlet Bahçeli expressed his unwillingness to participate in any coalition government and argued that "we should hold early elections if all else fails." For weeks, the party's entire strategy has been based on the premise that early elections would hurt the Justice and Development Party (AK Party) to the MHP's advantage - which is exactly why Mr. Bahçeli turned down the Republican People's Party's (CHP) offer to form a tripartite coalition excluding the AK Party. Likewise, he refused to form a short-term coalition government with Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu's party, which would have led the country to the polls after passing a series of laws.Nowadays, there is a lot of chatter about the AK Party's supposed eagerness to hold early elections, but the realities in the Turkish capital are quite different. The AK Party, for instance, was keen on avoiding early elections at least until they held inconclusive talks with the MHP leadership. Although the negotiations between the AK Party and the CHP were going well, pollsters indicated that the party base was opposed to a partnership with the Republicans. Their first pick was a coalition government with the MHP. The alternative, early elections. With the MHP leadership unwilling to work together, the AK Party turned to early elections.It is no secret that the CHP has been desperate to control several cabinet positions regardless of their partners: First, the party pushed for a tripartite coalition with the MHP and the Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP). When the MHP disagreed, the Republicans tried to reach an agreement with the AK Party. When the coalition talks fell through, they had no choice but to second early elections. After weeks of unsuccessful negotiations, Prime Minister Davutoğlu formed an interim government on Friday.The so-called election government presented a valuable opportunity to the MHP, which promptly announced that it would rather waive their constitutional right to join the cabinet than work together with members of the HDP, a political party affiliated with the PKK. Against the backdrop of terrorist attacks and widespread anger, the idea was to accuse the AK Party of forming a de facto coalition government with the HDP and watch the prime minister waste his time and energy to prove the claim wrong. The MHP's move led the CHP, which had previously announced that it would participate in the election government, to turn down the offer. Unbothered by the deadlock, the HDP leadership opted to join. The MHP's game plan was clearly geared toward luring away Turkish nationalists from the AK Party. When Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu reached out to a small group of parliamentarians from the CHP, the MHP and the HDP, however, something unexpected happened: Two parties ended up in trouble.Tuğrul Türkeş, a deputy chairman of the MHP and the son of MHP founder Alparslan Türkeş, revolted against the party leadership to accept the prime minister's offer. According to sources close to the party, the decision reflected a broader dissatisfaction with Chairman Devlet Bahçeli's post-election strategy and marked a turning point within the MHP, where challenging the leader remains taboo. In addition to creating tensions within the MHP, Türkeş agreeing to join the cabinet meant that the Turkish nationalists could no longer talk about a de facto coalition government between the AK Party and the HDP.The Prime Minister's offer spelled trouble for the HDP as well. Although the HDP leadership had publicly agreed to assuming three cabinet positions - the party's constitutionally determined share-, Levent Tüzel, a member of the radical-left Labor Party (EMEP) who serves as an HDP parliamentarian, turned down the offer by claiming that "the [election] government will wage war against the people." This is obviously a complicated situation for the HDP, since two members of the party will be part of a government that one of the fellow members describes as a war cabinet. The episode could highlight broader differences of opinion between the HDP proper and various movements within the umbrella organization. With Tüzel bowing to pressures from EMEP, several senior HDP figures allegedly complained that there was "no point in working together if we won't act together." According to sources familiar with the HDP, there is a strong chance that the tensions could lead to major changes in the HDP's list of parliamentary candidates.It remains difficult to forecast how Turkey's major political parties will perform in the Nov. 1 parliamentary elections, but the MHP and the HDP clearly took some hits in the early days of the campaign. The Turkish nationalists, in particular, might not have enough time to patch up their wounds.
Last Update: August 31, 2015 02:23