Yemen, Iraq and US

We definitely live in very interesting times. Nobody was really expecting a positive outcome of the negotiations of the P5+1 with Iran on nuclear issues. Everything pointed to a disappointment in Lausanne, but the Iranian delegation surprised everyone by mostly accepting all the principles of a detailed agreement. Almost all interested countries, except Israel, were extremely glad that diplomacy had averted a hazardous situation that had been on the agenda for far too long: Iran producing its own nuclear weapons. With the new agreement in preparation, Iran will be free to continue to develop its nuclear research for civilian use, whereas the enriched uranium used in nuclear weapons will be destroyed gradually and Iranian research wıll be closely scrutinised by the signing parties.

This very promising step opened wide the window for speculation pinpointing a "normalized" Iran as a new ally for the U.S. in the region, almost like the forgotten times of Reza Shah Pahlavi. More particularly, in Turkey, a large number of observers underlined the "successful" policy of Iran, positioning itself as a regional power, whereas Turkey and its foreign policy were again reviled.

Almost in no time, the situation in Yemen got out of hand. Already experiencing civil war with one of the poorest economies in the world, Yemen was the "weakest link" in the region. Its immovable former President Ali Abdullah Saleh had to flee the country in the wake of the Arab Spring, but he never wanted to relinquish power. Only in exchange for total immunity did he resign, leaving his son, General Ali Abdullah Saleh, in command of an important section of the army and the security forces.

Deputy President Abd Rabbuh Mansur Hadi was elected as the new president, but the turmoil did not cease. Al Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and forces under the command of Abdul-Malik al-Houthi staged a major uprising. Houthis control the capital Sanaa and have encircled Aden. The civil war is not really defined by sectarian divides so long as both the Sunni AQAP and the Shiite Houthis fight separately against the central government, which does not govern anything anymore.

Saudi Arabia, backed by the U.S. and a large number of Gulf countries, has waged a major air attack against the Houthis, inflicting significant casualties, without, however, stopping their advance. Iran is overtly supporting the rebellion, condemning the air raids by Saudi Arabia. Both the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and President Hassan Rouhani have condemned the Saudi policy and attacks in vehement terms.

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry, openly supporting the Saudi stance, has virulently attacked Iranian policy, which has had the effect of a cold shower on those who thought Iran was heading toward amicable and increasingly close relations with the U.S.

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's position becomes more understandable in the aftermath of the recent developments concerning Yemen. Erdoğan, just before visiting Iran, made a very surprising declaration, urging Iran to get its soldiers and militants out of regional conflicts. Now the war in Yemen, turning into a proxy war between Saudi Arabia and the U.S. on one side, and Iran on the other, supports Erdoğan's serious remonstrance.