An invasion of Crimea by hardly disguised Russian troops is underway. The autonomous region of Crimea, legally under Ukrainian sovereignty, is home to important Russian naval bases and its population is today overwhelmingly Russian, due to the policy of deportation of the region's autochthon population: Crimean Tatars.Russia's aggressive policy there seems to be designed to intimidate the new Ukrainian administration that replaced ex-President Victor Yanukovych. Mass maneuvers of Russian forces at the Ukrainian border have been stopped but Russia is still keeping the military option on the table.Ukraine outside of Crimea is also heavily dependent on Russia in trading and economic terms. Since Yanukovych was elected, the democratic process in the country has steadily been disrupted and what amounts to a single-party regime emerged. As a consequence, the country has descended into deep economic and political turmoil, despite its huge agricultural potential and extensive industrial infrastructure.The tension in domestic and international fields has been exacerbated by accusations that ex-premier Julia Timoschenko is guilty of embezzlement -charges that led to her imprisonment. A widespread feeling of being cheated has impregnated the political atmosphere, especially among people supporting the European Union and greater democratization, as well as in the Western parts of Ukraine where the population is influenced by Ukrainian nationalism.After the diplomatic scandal at the Vilnius Summit in Nov. 2013, when relations between the EU and Ukraine were almost suspended, this feeling of "being cheated" became obvious. The EU was thrust into a terrible position when Yanukovych refused an association agreement supplemented by a free trade association that would be put in place incrementally. Yanukovych's refusal stemmed from the pressure exercised upon him by Russia. This latter is in no position to let either Ukraine or Kazakhstan go it alone because it needs them for the customs union it is trying to form. Putin therefore had no choice but to vehemently oppose an association agreement between Ukraine and the EU.The popular uprising that erupted in Kiev after the Vilnius scandal was harshly repressed by the government, killing tens of people, but to no avail. Yanukovych, who did not enjoy the support of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, had to flee the capital after not only street protests picked up but also the Parliament turned against him, despite the fact that Putin, to reward Yanukovych's steadfastness, came up with an emergency aid package totaling almost $5 billion, together with very enticing energy deals.As of today, the Ukrainian army appears to be deeply divided. The commander of the Ukrainian fleet has pledged allegiance to Crimean local authorities and is flying the Russian flag on ships under his control. Both the United States and the EU are putting all their diplomatic weight into the ring to dissuade the Russians from taking full military action. Vladimir Putin, on his side, has decided to recognize only Yanukovych as the legitimate representative of Ukraine, shutting the door to negotiations on this subject.In any case, Ukraine needs stability and a deep overhaul of its economy. It is unlikely that either the EU or U.S. can extend such sustainable support. The country has to take advantage of Western support while upholding relations with Russia. It looks like a very dangerous tightrope walk and nobody knows who can get Ukraine out of this quagmire in the absence of a mutually agreed political authority.The EU and U.S. are in no position to snatch Ukraine out of the Russian orbit. Nobody wants the start of an armed conflict. But again in 1914, no big power wanted the start of an armed conflict and that did not stop World War I from being waged, pushing European civilization toward what looked like total extinction.With the Syrian tragedy on her southern border and Ukrainian turmoil to the north, Turkey has entered a period where she is bound to focus all her attention on external policy dynamics and use her energy very wisely and efficiently.