President Hillary Clinton
The United States presidential nomination process appears to have come to an end. Despite news of Senator Bernie Sanders "winding down" his nationwide offices and betting everything on California, his chances there are no better than a coin-toss. Clinton's momentum as of late appears to be unstoppable as does Donald Trump's momentum going into Indiana today. While Ted Cruz and John Kasich have no chance of being the nominee for the Republican Party in the first round of voting, both continue to bet on robbing Trump of the necessary delegates to win the nomination outright. Although mathematically, Clinton faces a more up-hill battle, Sanders could still technically win the nomination; the momentum she brings to the upcoming primaries almost guarantees her nomination.
Sanders would have to win over 80 percent of the delegates in upcoming primaries to clinch the nomination and no major winner-take-all states remain. This means a near 80 percent win in the popular vote will be needed for Sanders to steal the nomination away from Clinton, a lead he currently does not enjoy. Neither Cruz nor Kasich could do the same to Trump, however, they can still stop him from getting the nomination in the second round of voting. Should Trump fall short of the number of delegates necessary to clinch the nomination, the first round of voting at the convention would not be able to produce a nominee. Thus, the Cleveland Republican National Convention becomes a "brokered" one in which delegates are then free to vote for whomever they believe will be the best candidate to win the national election. This is where Cruz and Kasich believe they can pull of a win.
On the Democratic side, California is the major ticket for Sanders. A win in California by double digits would put him in close proximity to Hillary and may even be enough to convince "super-delegates," who can change their votes at any time, to support Sanders. The Sanders camp argues that the senator would have a better chance at beating Trump in a nationwide poll. In fact, both Clinton and Sanders beat Trump in a head-to-head match-up for the presidency. Using this logic, swaying Hillary's super-delegates into voting for Sanders is a guaranteed path for the senator in clinching the nomination. A long-shot to say the least, but still an outside possibility.
Last week, the nomination process went from weird to absurd. In a final act of desperation, Senator Cruz of Texas, "nominated" Carly Fiorina as his running mate. While no major-party candidate for presidency has declared his running-mate so many months before the convention, Cruz did so anyway. The role of a vice-presidential nominee of a candidate who himself has yet to be nominated is unclear at best. A strategic ploy for airtime, Cruz used the "nomination announcement" to remind voters of how he is the only true conservative running for office. While Cruz may be correct, it appears the Republican Party is no longer a "conservative" one. The ultimate nominee of the party will not have the support of a majority of those who voted in the nomination process, thus leaving the party base disenfranchised. This will almost certainly lead to lower turn-out come November and election time.
Should Cruz win Indiana tonight, it will only further muddy the waters on the GOP side. Even if Sanders picks up the states between now and the California primary slated for June 7, he will not win the nomination and would need California to do so. Kasich's only hope is, ironically, Cruz winning a few states so that Trump doesn't hit the majority threshold of delegates necessary to tie-up the nomination.
All of this delegate-math translates into a near guaranteed nomination for Clinton.
A Clinton-Trump match-up has always yielded Clinton in polls from the outset and Trump's "unfavorable" ratings have increased in recent weeks to over 60 percent. No U.S. president has been elected with such a cloud of negativity surrounding their candidacy and a Trump win is looking nearly impossible. Although Kasich would give Clinton the biggest challenge in a nationwide contest, and despite the fact he has "beaten" Clinton in hypothetical polls, his numbers have also waned.
I predict that Clinton will win the Democratic nomination, will go on to win a landslide victory in the general election, and ultimately cause the Republican Party to splinter, guaranteeing many successive Democratic administrations for the foreseeable future.
Sanders would have to win over 80 percent of the delegates in upcoming primaries to clinch the nomination and no major winner-take-all states remain. This means a near 80 percent win in the popular vote will be needed for Sanders to steal the nomination away from Clinton, a lead he currently does not enjoy. Neither Cruz nor Kasich could do the same to Trump, however, they can still stop him from getting the nomination in the second round of voting. Should Trump fall short of the number of delegates necessary to clinch the nomination, the first round of voting at the convention would not be able to produce a nominee. Thus, the Cleveland Republican National Convention becomes a "brokered" one in which delegates are then free to vote for whomever they believe will be the best candidate to win the national election. This is where Cruz and Kasich believe they can pull of a win.
On the Democratic side, California is the major ticket for Sanders. A win in California by double digits would put him in close proximity to Hillary and may even be enough to convince "super-delegates," who can change their votes at any time, to support Sanders. The Sanders camp argues that the senator would have a better chance at beating Trump in a nationwide poll. In fact, both Clinton and Sanders beat Trump in a head-to-head match-up for the presidency. Using this logic, swaying Hillary's super-delegates into voting for Sanders is a guaranteed path for the senator in clinching the nomination. A long-shot to say the least, but still an outside possibility.
Last week, the nomination process went from weird to absurd. In a final act of desperation, Senator Cruz of Texas, "nominated" Carly Fiorina as his running mate. While no major-party candidate for presidency has declared his running-mate so many months before the convention, Cruz did so anyway. The role of a vice-presidential nominee of a candidate who himself has yet to be nominated is unclear at best. A strategic ploy for airtime, Cruz used the "nomination announcement" to remind voters of how he is the only true conservative running for office. While Cruz may be correct, it appears the Republican Party is no longer a "conservative" one. The ultimate nominee of the party will not have the support of a majority of those who voted in the nomination process, thus leaving the party base disenfranchised. This will almost certainly lead to lower turn-out come November and election time.
Should Cruz win Indiana tonight, it will only further muddy the waters on the GOP side. Even if Sanders picks up the states between now and the California primary slated for June 7, he will not win the nomination and would need California to do so. Kasich's only hope is, ironically, Cruz winning a few states so that Trump doesn't hit the majority threshold of delegates necessary to tie-up the nomination.
All of this delegate-math translates into a near guaranteed nomination for Clinton.
A Clinton-Trump match-up has always yielded Clinton in polls from the outset and Trump's "unfavorable" ratings have increased in recent weeks to over 60 percent. No U.S. president has been elected with such a cloud of negativity surrounding their candidacy and a Trump win is looking nearly impossible. Although Kasich would give Clinton the biggest challenge in a nationwide contest, and despite the fact he has "beaten" Clinton in hypothetical polls, his numbers have also waned.
I predict that Clinton will win the Democratic nomination, will go on to win a landslide victory in the general election, and ultimately cause the Republican Party to splinter, guaranteeing many successive Democratic administrations for the foreseeable future.
Last Update: May 03, 2016 01:57