Interest rates, Greece and alternatives to cash

I want to talk about three topics today, all of whose common denominator is the impending seismic shift in global financial markets and a search for alternatives to current models that no longer work: The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) and its decade-long inability to raise interest rates, Greece and its inability to defibrillate its economy and alternatives to these classical models of finance.

Last week the Federal Reserve did exactly what I have been predicting they would do in this column for six months now: Nothing. The Open Market Committee of the Fed voted to keep the benchmark Federal Funds Rate at zero percent, signaling the U.S. economy was not yet prepared to weather an effectively infinite (from zero to non-zero) increase in the benchmark interest rate. Despite the fact that U.S. unemployment continues to near "full employment," the employment participation rate continues to drop, now at 38-year lows. The participation rate, currently at 62.6, measures the percentage of Americans that can work and are working; meaning 37.4 percent of the "able-bodied" working population is unemployed. This is significant as employment participation never recovered from the Great Recession, leaving the current "turn-around" skewed in favor of higher earners.

The lackluster participation rate coupled with the collapse of Chinese equity markets this summer and global fallout from that collapse, including a major correction in U.S. equity markets, forced the Fed's hand. Global markets would have reacted negatively to a rate increase, but the lack of candor following the decision by Fed officials continues to worry markets. Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President and CEO John C. Williams reiterated opinions echoed by other Fed officials that a rate hike may be coming this year in comments made on Friday. He went on to dismiss claims that China's situation is "dire," however, the Fed's reasoning behind delaying a rate hike was because of global weakness and a strong dollar holding inflation back in the United States. Had China's situation been anything but dire, the Fed would certainly be more adamant about raising rates this year, currently priced in to increase in January at the earliest.

In Europe, Greece's Syriza-led government won re-election with nearly the same percentage of the vote as it garnered earlier this year (36 percent), yet it did so with voter turnout decreasing by 7 percent, sinking to the lowest in modern Greek's history, as disenfranchisement with politicians has taken hold in Greece. Syriza allied with an anti-EU party in forming a Syriza-dominated coalition that will allow former Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras to consolidate power with a renewed mandate to continue negotiating with eurozone countries. This is good news for Turkey and the region, as weak coalition governments lead to more elections and uncertainty, and Greece's recovery is long overdue and desperately needed for the people of Greece.

Last week I traveled to Los Cabos, Mexico, to observe the annual meeting of the International Reciprocal Trade Association (IRTA) to learn more about developments in the world of alternative finance. The convention was well attended by "barter" companies who have developed cashless systems that are facilitating trade both in developed regions, such as the United States and Europe, as well as emerging markets, such as Turkey.

The barter economy is one in which companies sell excess-capacity or inventory in exchange for "barter credits." Generally these goods or services have low variable costs and therefore allow the seller the ability to turn their idle capacity into an asset. The sale is credited to the company's account at a barter exchange, which the company then uses to purchase goods or services from other companies who also converted their excess capacity to a tradable asset. This cashless system allows cash-strapped companies to purchase necessary capital goods and inputs for production without the need for external financing. With the talk of rising interest rates looming, rates in emerging economies have increased this year, making investment cost-prohibitive. Emerging markets are especially in need of alternatives to the current global financial system, as interest rate decisions in Washington, D.C., can bankrupt businesses half a world away. With developments in technology, alternative currencies such as bitcoin have sprung up and the current financial system appears to be on the cusp of monumental change.

Another observer at the IRTA's convention was the International Islamic Trade Finance Corporation (ITFC), which is the trade finance division of the Islamic Development Bank (IDB). Turkey is a member of both the ITFC and the IDB, both of whose mission is to further develop the economic conditions of member countries. ITFC CEO Waleed Al-Wohaib attended the meeting, expressed interest in the barter system and discussed ways in which this alternative financial system could benefit the ITFC's member countries and their peoples while also opening up these countries to Western companies in need of fresh markets.

As esoteric Fed decisions and movements of reserve currencies dominate global trade, countries and companies not part of primary decision-making circles will continue to search for alternative forms of financing in which they become more competitive. This is not a new trend, but tech advancements will speed up this process exponentially.